Progress Pittsburgh

http://nullspace2.blogspot.com/2008/06/parsing-primary.html

by Chris Briem

So, I suppose it’s time to parse the primary data a little bit more. The problem with looking too deeply at the results from April is that there isn’t anything to really compare the voting patterns to. The obvious comparison to the spring 2008 primary would be results from the spring 2004 primary which was the last presidential cycle. The problem of course is that in 2004, the primary had been locked up by the time the Pennsylvania primary came around. Contrast that with 2008, and no matter whether you thought the electoral results were already won by BO, the media played up the whole election as the biggest presidential primary in Pennsylvania ever Given that, any comparison of the two elections (2004 vs. 2008) is by definition an overinterpretation. Nonetheless, maybe there is something to glean from comparing the two elections. More »

PA is left with four remaining undeclared superdelegates:  Reps. Mike Doyle and Jason Altmire of Southwest PA, Rep. Tim Holden of Harrisburg, and Rep. Bob Brady of Philadelphia.  As of today, Obama needs 61 more delegates to secure the nomination (though it is likely that after the Rules Committee meetings on May 31, that number will go up slightly.)

The decision for Mike Doyle to go public should be easy.  Obama won his district overwhelmingly and his former endorsee Gov. Bill Richardson has endorsed Obama.  Is Doyle afraid to go against Rendell?  Murtha?  Onorato?

Conventional wisdom is that Jason Altmire is supporting Obama, but he has yet to make a public endorsement.  Melissa Hart has already even put together an attack ad on Obama and Altmire together (seriously?  liberal kool-aid?)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDGsizFF6Es[/youtube]

Almire expressed his fear to endorse and his desire for the contest to end:

“Three months ago, everyone in the district was saying how great it was to have these strong candidates,” he said. “Now, whenever I’m at a rally or somewhere else, I hear people saying, ‘I used to like Jason, but if he endorses the one I don’t like, I’m not going to vote for him.’”

Nationwide, Obama’s superdelegate lead is up to 30.  Obama leads her among Governors, Congressmembers, Senators, and DNC Members.  Clinton leads Obama only among distinguished party leaders.

So, the question out there is will Doyle or Altmire be among those who put Obama over the top to officially to secure the nomination?

A few months ago, Mr. Super reminded us that “There are no undecided superdelegates–just undeclared ones.”  In otherwords, superdelegates–like most of the rest of us–have an idea who they personally support, but want to wait for the most opportune time to declare that support (or maybe they are hoping that they won’t have to declare their support until after a nominee is determined.)

More »

On Mach 14, I looked at what Obama and Clinton each needed to get out of Election Day in Pennsylvania:

[Clinton] must-win by a large margin.  Obama currently leads Clinton by somewhere between 100 and 150 delegates and he leads in popular vote by over 800,000.  Pennsylvania is the last great chance for Clinton, but in order to cut Obama’s popular vote lead by even just half, she will need to win about 65% of the state’s popular vote, and in order to cut his delegate lead by 50, she will need to win pledged delegates 104 to 54.

It appears that Clinton won the state with just by about 9%, she picked up about 200,000 more voters than Obama, and she’s currently picked up about 12 delegates (though that will probably shrink to about 9, once all of the delegates are assigned).  It’s a clear win for her and a respectable margin, however she fell far short of what she needed to do to make a real dent in Obama’s lead.

What did Obama need to accomplish?

He needs to keep the statewide popular vote close by running up his vote in Philadelphia and running respectably in the rest of the state.  A real test for him will be to see how well he does among working-class white voters in the West, high income voters in the inner and outer suburbs of Philadelphia, and among Latinos in the Eastern side of the state.  Finally, the Obama campaign needs to prevent a win here by Clinton from being framed as the continuation of a “see-saw” battle.

Obama did manage to keep the vote close in many regions, but by taking only 65% of Philadlphia, and with turnout more than 100,000 votes lower than the 2004 General Election Kerry vote, he did not run the vote up as much as he might have hoped in Philly.  Clinton took most of Western PA, though Obama won the City of Pittsburgh 58%-42%, more than many predicted.  Results were mixed in Philadelphia’s suburbs, with Obama taking Delaware and Chester, and Clinton taking Montgomery and Bucks.  On the day of the election, most news reports were noting that Obama was not expecting to win, so the campaign did a good job of managing expectations.

Clinton made small gains, but both candidates are already on to Indiana and North Carolina, where those gains will either be erased or will grow a little more.

The candidates are coming to town.

Join Hillary and President Bill Clinton for a “Solutions for Pennsylvania” Rally in Pittsburgh!

When:  Monday, April 21, 2008 at 11:30 AM -  2:30 PM

Where:

Downtown Pittsburgh
Market Square
Pittsburgh, PA 15222
General Area:

Description:

Join Hillary and President Bill Clinton for a “Solutions for Pennsylvania” Rally in Pittsburgh! Hillary has comprehensive solutions for the complex problems we face today. Join her and President Clinton in Pittsburgh to learn more about Hillary’s lifetime record of results.

I have recieved a few emails about door-knocking for Obama and Clinton this weekend.

Thus far:

• Obama -  Harmar/Springdal
• Obama – Forrest Hills
  • Meet at Forrest Hills Coffee Shop, Sat. 4/12/08 at Noo
  • More Info: http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/48td

Know of others?  See a door-knocker in your neighborhood? Leave a comment.  Maybe we can try to get a map going of which campaigns are in which neighborhood.

The Clinton campaign has just announced that this ad will begin airing in PA. What is up with the use of the “its 3am line” – is it really effective? What do you think – will this ad influence votes?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XpaK-cGO9U[/youtube] More »