by Chris Briem

So, I suppose it’s time to parse the primary data a little bit more. The problem with looking too deeply at the results from April is that there isn’t anything to really compare the voting patterns to. The obvious comparison to the spring 2008 primary would be results from the spring 2004 primary which was the last presidential cycle. The problem of course is that in 2004, the primary had been locked up by the time the Pennsylvania primary came around. Contrast that with 2008, and no matter whether you thought the electoral results were already won by BO, the media played up the whole election as the biggest presidential primary in Pennsylvania ever Given that, any comparison of the two elections (2004 vs. 2008) is by definition an overinterpretation. Nonetheless, maybe there is something to glean from comparing the two elections.

As a starting point…. broken down by age, here is the graph I come up with for the number of voters in Allegheny county by single year of age in 2004 and 2008. Blue is 2008, Redish is 2004.

On the surface this already seems surprising because it makes it look as if the big bulge in voting was not just an increase in younger voters which is all the media really talked about. There was clearly a big, if not bigger, bump in the number of people who came out to vote between the ages of around 28 to 63.

Of course that is in the raw numbers, if you look at the percentage increase in the number of voters in 2008 compared to 2004, again by single year of age in Allegheny County I get this graph:

That shows the big bump up in younger, in fact of the youngest voters. Of course with percentages you get small number distortions when your denominators are so small, which is pretty much the case with voters under the age of 30, if not 40, in local elections. So interpret that graph as you will.

Is there something to make sense of here given all the caveats? Counting the number of voters does not allow you really figure out who was more likely to come out on election day. Especially around here, local demographics are so atypical that you get very different number of people in different age cohorts. So I have matched the voter turnout numbers used above to estimates I have on the population in the county in 2004 and in 2008.

What that gives me is the following graph which is the percentage of total population that actually voted, again by single year of age for Allegheny County in the two elections.

With that… I am not sure what it says in the end. Clearly the small number of younger voters in 2004 were given a big percentage bump up in 2008. I think it’s much more interesting how many of the middle and older age voters came out. Nobody talked about that much, either during the run-up to the election nor even since. That spike in increased participation around age 27 in the 2008 primary is interesting and deserves some inspection. If I had to sum it up, I would say that the big increase in attention given the 2008 primary made the voter participation look much more like what is typical of a general election around here. What I think is probably the biggest question, and something I will look at when I have time, is whether the additional folks who voted 2008 were more likely to be the people who are likely to have come out in the general election anyway. Lots of younger voters come out in general elections even if they never make it to a primary. It makes a big difference if the folks who came out in the 2008 primary where those folks, or a lot of people really new to the political process and in the fall we can expect them to show up along with the folks who typically skip the primary, but make it to the general. The answer to that question across the country I bet will determine who wins in the fall is my call.

With only a few states left to vote, the outcome is already becoming clear.  Clinton cannot earn enough pledged delegates to overtake Obama’s lead, and Obama cannot win enough pledged delegates to put him over the top without more superdelegate endorsements.  Since voting began, Obama has been gradually chipping away at Clinton’s superdelegate lead.  (Demconwatch is also keeping track of superdelegates who will vote for the pledged delegate leader once voting ends.)

Barack Obama got some groundbreaking news today when former DNC Chair Joe Andrew changed his support from Clinton to Obama.  This high-profile endorsement may send a signal to other Supers that it’s time to bring the nomination to its conclusion and unite behind a Democratic nominee in order to beat “100-year” John McCain.

What’s happening here in Pennsylvania?  The most recent news is that yesterday, DNC Member and PA AFL-CIO President Bill George gave Clinton his endorsement, adding that he will be 100% behind Senator Obama if he wins the nomination.  On June 7, State Democratic Committee will be electing 3 more superdelegates to the list.

Here’s where we are with the rest of PA’s superdelegates:

Undeclared

• Rep. Bob Brady
• Rep. Jason Altmire
• Rep. Chris Carney [Update 5/9: Pledged for Clinton]
• Rep. Mike Doyle
• Rep. Tim Holden

Clinton

• Gov. Ed Rendell
• Rep. Joe Sestak
• Rep. Paul Kanjorski
• Rep. Jack Murtha
• Rep. Allyson Schwartz
• Rep. Chris Carney [Updated 5/2]
• DNC Member TJ Rooney
• DNC Member Rena Baumgartner
• DNC Member Marcel Groen
• DNC Member Jean Milko
• DNC Member Evelyn Richardson
• DNC Member Gerald McEntee
• DNC Member Ruth Rudy
• DNC Member Ian Murray
• DNC Member Ronald Donatucci
• DNC Member Bill George
• DNC Member Sophie Masloff

Obama

• Sen. Bob Casey
• Rep. Chaka Fattah
• Rep. Patrick Murphy
• DNC Member Carol Ann Campbell
• DNC Member Leon Lynch

Here’s a comparison of the two cities by census data (2006 estimates).  (Note that this is not necessarily representative of the registered Democratic electorate, but since both cities are overwhelmingly Democratic, we’re going to pretend that it’s pretty close, and it shouldn’t make too much of a difference for comparison.)

Philadelphia is a slightly younger city overall, though Pittsburgh has a higher proportion of the population both between the ages of 20 and 35 and over the age of 65.  Philadelphia has a much higher African American population, and they also have a higher Latino population.

I started to pull these numbers together to ask whether it is true that Pittsburgh overperformed and Philadelphia underperformed for Obama (based on who each candidate’s supposed base is), but I don’t think these numbers tell that story.  Here’s some outstanding questions I have:  Did the Pittsburgh or Philadelphia staff have a better ground game on Election Day?  Did the Obama campaign’s decision not to give out street money in Philadelphia cause ward chairs to sit the election out, or even work the streets for Clinton?

Progressive Democrats in Western Pennsylvania are used to depending on our population-rich neighbor to the east in statewide elections, but this should be a reminder to everyone in the State that when you are starting from behind, votes don’t come automatically.

[Clinton] must-win by a large margin.  Obama currently leads Clinton by somewhere between 100 and 150 delegates and he leads in popular vote by over 800,000.  Pennsylvania is the last great chance for Clinton, but in order to cut Obama’s popular vote lead by even just half, she will need to win about 65% of the state’s popular vote, and in order to cut his delegate lead by 50, she will need to win pledged delegates 104 to 54.

It appears that Clinton won the state with just by about 9%, she picked up about 200,000 more voters than Obama, and she’s currently picked up about 12 delegates (though that will probably shrink to about 9, once all of the delegates are assigned).  It’s a clear win for her and a respectable margin, however she fell far short of what she needed to do to make a real dent in Obama’s lead.

What did Obama need to accomplish?

He needs to keep the statewide popular vote close by running up his vote in Philadelphia and running respectably in the rest of the state.  A real test for him will be to see how well he does among working-class white voters in the West, high income voters in the inner and outer suburbs of Philadelphia, and among Latinos in the Eastern side of the state.  Finally, the Obama campaign needs to prevent a win here by Clinton from being framed as the continuation of a “see-saw” battle.

Obama did manage to keep the vote close in many regions, but by taking only 65% of Philadlphia, and with turnout more than 100,000 votes lower than the 2004 General Election Kerry vote, he did not run the vote up as much as he might have hoped in Philly.  Clinton took most of Western PA, though Obama won the City of Pittsburgh 58%-42%, more than many predicted.  Results were mixed in Philadelphia’s suburbs, with Obama taking Delaware and Chester, and Clinton taking Montgomery and Bucks.  On the day of the election, most news reports were noting that Obama was not expecting to win, so the campaign did a good job of managing expectations.

Clinton made small gains, but both candidates are already on to Indiana and North Carolina, where those gains will either be erased or will grow a little more.

4/23, 9:58- In the cool reflection of the morning, I see that I made one BIG goof.  I focused so much on the district-level results, that I royally screwed up the statewide split.  That’s only 30-25 in Clinton’s favor, so the total for Election Day stands at Clinton 83, Obama 71, with 4 still to be allocated.

1:19- For the night, I’m leaving my estimate at Clinton-86, Obama-68, 4 still to be allocated.

1:16- In Western PA, Obama won the 14th Congressional District, but Clinton won by a large amount in the rest of Allegheny County.  In Jack Murtha’s district (12), Clinton may have reached the 70% mark to gain an extra delegate, but I’ll have to leave it unassigned for the night.  Here, Clinton is leading 15-11.

1:10- Because 3 of the 4 districts in Central PA have an even number of delegates, it was nearly a wash.  Obama did well in Harrisburg and at Penn State.  Clinton did well elsewhere, and edged Obama 8-7 overall.

1:05- Clinton did exceptionally well in the Northeast, winning all three Congressional districts by large numbers, and winning delegates 10 to 4.

12:55- In the Southeast, I was surprised that Obama did not do better than 65% in Philadelphia.  A lot will be made of that over the next few days.  The two Philadelphia districts are still too close for me to be able to estimate.  In the collar counties, Obama did well in Chester and Delaware and Clinton won Montgomery and Bucks.  All-in-all, I have Obama taking the Southeast 24-20, with 3 outstanding.  Obama will likely get all 3 of these.

 12:27- I’ll be estimating as many of the delegate counts as possible, and give a full analysis tomorrow.

11:29- If the 10 point lead holds up (and it seems that it’s going to) I can estimate the statewide delegate split as Clinton 33, Obama 22.

11:21- I took some time to make some adjustments.  It’s clear at this point that noone is going to sweep any congressional districts.  I updated 5, 7, 10, 12, and 16.

11:01- Obama gets the final delegate in Erie.

10:56- Looks like I spoke too soon on saying the Obama could not break 65% in district 1.  It’s going to be close, so I’m going to be taking 1 away from Clinton there and throwing it back in the pot.

10:53- With Clinton apparently winning the 4th congressional district, the question remains what Jason Altmire, the undeclared superdelegate who is the Congressman in that district, will do.  He has been at a number of Obama events, but has not yet endorsed anyone.

10:50- Despite winning Pittsburgh, Allegheny County as a whole is going strongly to Clinton, so she will pick up the 4th and 18th, both 3-2 delegates.

10:47- Obama is speaking now, and he won our home district (14th)!

10:43- Obama is ahead by 24 points in Dauphin County (Harrisburg).  Clinton is leading by a lot in the rest of district 17.  This will split 2-2.

10:37- In Pittsburgh, it looks like Barack Obama is going to pull out a narrow victory, but it will be close.

10:31- Clinton will win Erie & the 3rd Congressional district.  She probably won’t break 70% to get the final delegate.

10:24- With 92% in in Philly, Obama will be below 5%, so I’ll estimate that Clinton will get the final delegate in district 1.

10:19- Clinton will win district 9, picking up 2 delegates to Obama’s 1.

10:11- Neither Clinton nor Obama will win more than 79% in the 14th, but the race for Pittsburgh is looking really close.  Chart updated.

10:07- Clinton will win district 11.  Not sure yet if she will get over 70% to pick up the extra delegate or not, but I’ve updated the chart to give her 3 there.

9:56- The only remaining question in the Philadelphia districts is whether late-reporting will push Obama up to over 65%.  I’m betting no, but I’ll hold out on calling the final delegate in each of those districts. 

9:45- With 63% in Philadelphia reporting, Obama will win districts 1 and 2, I’ll update the chart.

9:36- I’m starting to assign some of the Philadelphia Delegates.  It does not look like Obama will be breaking 80% there.

9:22- Results from Allegheny County have been remarkably slow to come in.  Only 5 precincts reporting so far.

9:08- With 1/4 of the votes in from Philadelphia, Obama is only up by 10 points.  That probably has more to do with the state being called than anything else.  I’m not sure what precincts in Philadelphia are still out, but Obama would need to be up by much more in that County at this point to really compete.

9:06- CNN and the BBC called the state for Clinton.  Maybe a bit early, but not much of a surprise.  Not nearly enough votes in yet to project delegates.

9:03- Just got a text message - Pittsburgh ward 9 district 1 (home of Len Bodack Sr in Central Lawrenceville), Obama lost by only 11 votes. 

8:47- What the hell, I’ll go ahead and call the State Auditor race for Jack Wagner and the State Attorney General for Morganelli.  I should be safe in those uncontested races. 

8:41- Obama leads 14 votes to 9 in Huntingdon County.  Clinton by about 600 votes in Philadelphia.  Neither of these results will hold up.  I’ll wait to post more numbers until there is something a little more useful.

8:37- First precincts coming in are from Philadelphia and Luzerne Counties.  Just a couple of thousand of votes in so far, but nothing of substance to report.  Numbers should start coming in.

8:35 - People have been coming into the party.  There’s a mix of Clinton and Obama supporters here.

8:10- Exit Polls:  This race will not be a blow-out

8:00- Polls are closed.  Elsewhere on the Burghosphere:  with 2 votes reporting, Dish calls it, Macyapper’s polling place had as many voters by 9:20 am as they expect all day, Pittsburgh Comet will be covering the returns,

7:45- We have another 15 minutes.  In the meantime, if you missed this gem from Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll at the Clinton rally, check this out:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu_W0VGATjY[/youtube]

7:36- Polls closing in half an hour.  People are putting up decorations for the returns party.  Planned Parenthood, the League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, and Progress Pittsburgh are hosting.

Here’s some anecdotes from the ground:

• At some precincts in Highland Park, they had beat 2004 General Election turnout by mid-morning!
• My wife had this conversation:
  -  9-yr-old:  Who are you voting for?
  -  TMP:  Ivoted for Obama.
  -  9-yr-old:  Me too! Well, I WISH I could
• First-time voters have been coming out of the woodwork in Oakland, Lawrenceville, and probably lots of other neighborhoods
• At the Obama staging area that was covering Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Bloomfield, and Friendship, all of the precincts had been canvassed by early afternoon.  The first sign of Clinton canvassers I saw in Lawrenceville was at about 5pm.

Early this Morning- It’s Election Day!  Tonight, starting at about 7:30pm or so, I’ll be liveblogging the Election Results from the party at Ava (Highland Ave, just south of Penn) hosted by the PA League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, and Progress Pittsburgh.  Come back for instantaneous analysis and a delegate count.

In the meantime, feel free to check some older posts:  delegate math, who the delegates will be, my prediction post, and what I’ll be looking for tonight.
Estimated Delegate Count

Mt. Washington: The best view of any polling place in Pittsburgh. Not only do I get to vote today, I get to look at this view.

Bloomfield:

This is 5151 liberty the old location for 8-7 it was mailed to new registrants instead of the right location at gross and liberty.

Point Breeze:

Pittsburgh 14-11 (Linden School) around 11am.  No signs for candidates, no lines

I was canvassing knocking on doors in Central Lawrenceville for most of today, and I couldn’t help but notice that, with the election only one day away, many of the households had been targeted by both campaigns.  I’d be hard pressed to come up with a prediction that I felt very comfortable with, but I’d guess that Obama might win the 9th ward by a few points.  Lawrenceville’s voting history does not really give too many clues.  There are probably a few more Obama signs around, but of course, if signs voted then we would not even need to bother going to polls.  That can be a signn of a little more enthusiasm, however.  I think the difference will be made by the new voters:  both new residents and residents who have lived in Lawrenceville their whole lives, but will be voting for the first time.

This is an opportunity to create a collection of photos of what is happening on election day around the city.  Feel free to send pictures from the Obama and Clinton rallies today too.

We will publish pictures on the blog and on the Progress Pittsburgh Flickr page.

Email your pictures to progresspittsburgh@gmail.com.

All photos will be posted under the name Progress Pittsburgh unless you want us to include your name. Please include the location too.

As you may have read before, Pennsylvania will be selecting 158 delegates.  Most media outlets will be reporting the statewide numbers, but only 55 delegates will be selected based on proportionality of the statewide vote, and 103 will be determined based on proportionality within each of our 19 Congressional Districts.  (As a reminder, the Democratic nomination is won by the candidate who gets the most delegate votes at the convention, not by some other arbitrary measure that one campaign happens to find more beneficial.)

It will be helpful to take a look at what county makes up the largest part of each Congressional District as the results come in.  Below, I’ve listed the county where the most votes will come from within each CD.  This is an estimate, based on past voting patterns in congressional primaries, skewed slightly based on general election performance to account for increased registration in some counties.

On Election Night, this is what I’m going to be looking for:

Southeast

• 93% of CD 1 is Philadelphia.  7 delegates at stake.  Obama will need to go a few points over 65% in the county to get a 5-2 split.
• 91% of CD 2 is Philadelphia.  9 delegates at stake.  Obama will need to go a few points over 62% in the county to get a 6-3 split.
• 52% of CD 13 is Montgomery.  7 delegates at stake.  If Obama wins with more than 55% or so, he may get a 5-2 split.  If Clinton wins by a large margin, it may be close who will get the 4-3 split.
• 37% of CD 6 is Chester.  4 delegates at stake.  If one candidate or the other wins by more than 65% here and in Berks, they could possibly pick up a 3-1 split.
• 71% of CD 7 is Delaware.  7 delegates at stake.  The winner here will likely get the 4-3 split.
• 93% of CD 8 is Bucks.  7 delegates at stake.  The winner here will likely get a 4-3 split.
• 68% of CD 16 is Lancaster.  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate wins by a HUGE margin, it will be a 2-2 split.

Northeast

• 22% of CD 10 is Lackawanna.  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate wins by more than 63% consistently across this corner of the state, it will be a 2-2 split.
• 42% of CD 11 is Luzerne.  5 delegates at stake.  If this is close, we will want to look at Lackawanna, which includes Scranton, and 30% of this county is also in CD 11.  Winner will get a 3-2 split
• 45% of CD 15 is Lehigh.  5 delegates at stake.  A 3-2 split will likely go to the winner.

Central

• 37% of CD 17 is Dauphin (including Harrisburg).  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate runs away with this, it will be a 2-2 split.
• 57% of CD 19 is York.  4 delegates at stake.  Will one candidate win by more than 65% here?
• 19% of CD 9 is Blair.  3 delegates at stake.  If Blair and Franklin are consistent with the rest of the South-Central counties, the winner will get a 2-1 split.
• 23% of CD 5 is Centre.  4 delegates at stake.  Penn State is in this county, so Obama should fare better here than in the rest of the district. 

Western

• 100% of CD 14 is Allegheny.   7 delegates at stake.  All of Pittsburgh is within CD 14, but the county also includes large parts of two other districts (see below).  Clinton will likely do better in the county as a whole than in CD 14 itself, so if the county race is relatively close, Obama will get a 4-3 split in CD 14.
• 42% of CD 4 is Allegheny.  5 delegates at stake.  Clinton’s numbers for CD 4 will be higher than the county.
• 58% of CD 18 is Allegheny.  5 delegates at stake.  Same story as CD 4.
• 48% of CD 3 is Erie.  5 delegates at stake.  Clinton will likely do better in the CD as a whole than the county.
• 23% of CD 12 is Cambria.  5 delegates at stake.  If this is consistent with Westmoreland, the winner will get the 3-2 split.

For what it’s worth, my Election Day predictions from a few weeks ago are here.  Come back Tuesday night for liveblogging of the results from the League of Young Voters / Sierra Club / Progress Pittsburgh Election Night returns party.

Today is Sunday, April 20, and Pennsylvania’s Primary is Tuesday April 22.  If you visit the PA elections page, you find that they are testing their results page live, rather than offline.

* For the record, I do not believe that there is a conspiracy afoot to rig the election for Mike Huckabee, and probably not for Clinton either, but I did want to share this screenshot.