Progress Pittsburgh

I had a request to produce a map that’s similar to the last post, but to look at how Ravenstahl’s vote % changed from the primary election to the general election.

This first map (a reproduction from the last post) shows how Ravenstahl performed in this election versus how he performed in the 2007 general election.  In this map, basically,

• The bluer the district, the worse Ravenstahl did against Harris & Acklin than against DeSantis
• The redder the district, the better Ravenstahl did against Harris & Acklin than against DeSantis

• The bluer the district, the worse Ravenstahl did against Harris & Acklin than against Dowd & Robinson
• The redder the district, the better Ravenstahl did against Harris & Acklin than against Dowd & Robinson

There’s been a little back and forth over whether the mayoral results show that Ravenstahl has weakened.  The argument that Luke 55% showing was something to be embarrassed by was made in the MSM by Jon Delano and Rich Lord.  Ravenstahl supporters point to Luke winning every city ward, as evidence of broad-based support.

Potter says that it doesn’t matter how much Luke won by, because it won’t force him to govern any differently.  I agree with Potter, in that I doubt that Luke will take heed for his rapid deterioration in support.  The administration will likely govern with just as much bravado as they always have.

I disagree that the results are completely irrelevant, however, because Luke has relied on his strong electoral support (in the past) to lend his capitol to other candidates.  We have already seen in this year’s primary that Ravenstahl has no coattails.  These results may be good news for Bruce Kraus and Patrick Dowd, who are both likely to see well-funded challengers whose best argument for election will be their close relationship with the mayor.  This may also give some political cover to Theresa Smith and Darlene Harris to act with more independence.

What is remarkable is the near-uniformity across the city where Luke’s support has decreased.  In the map below, I’ve shown the change in Luke’s win % from 2007 to 2009.  The more intense the blue, the greater the decrease; the more intense the red, the greater the increase.

1. “After three years as mayor, he has yet to articulate a vision for the future.”
2. “He does not have a reputation for working with the state legislative delegation.”
3. “He needs to put some distance between himself and the party machine, to generate independent thinking for Pittsburgh’s growth and progress.”
4. “ethical lapses after taking office upon the death of Bob O’Connor”
5. “his service as mayor remains a work in progress”
6. “It is incumbent on the mayor to assemble more top talent on the city’s behalf”

We have been trying to keep tabs on the Race for PGH 2009 here and noticed that there are some interesting posts from not the usual political bloggers about the upcoming mayoral race.  Here are a few of the new blogs who are stepping into the Pittsburgh political blogosphere…

• Politics and Place - A Rare Foray into the Political: If He Loses, This is How He’d Lose
  • Let me be perfectly honest. I don’t think Luke will lose. But, I think he couldlose. And if he does, this is how he would lose:
• What Would Vannevar Blog – G-20 in Pittsburgh: Luke’s Real-World Moment
  • If I may, the conditions described set the stage but don’t ring the bell; they’renecessary but insufficient. For Luke to not be elected, there needs to be an event, either (1) a significant, understandable scandal (a bag of cash rather than complex financial derivatives), or (2) an obvious failure of leadership attributed to the Mayor’s office.Holy Cow, Batman! What’s that? The G-20 in Pittsburgh on September 24 and 25th? Zowie!
• Pittsburgh Polemics – The Mayor’s Race: Strange Football Connections
  • Luke Ravenstahl, the incumbent mayor, rode along with the Pittsburgh Steelers during their Super Bowl Victory parade last February. Camcorder in hand, looking somewhat dwarfed beneath the Steeler’s Quarterback, “Big Ben” Roethlisberger.

Know of any other blogs who are writing about Pittsburgh politics – please share the link below in the comments

With the City Council District 2 Special Election just days away its time for another Progress Pittbsurgh poll.

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The emails have been flying this morning about the new blog on the scene – http://draftchelsa2009.blogspot.com.  Maybe this anonymous blogger was inspired by our post last week about the mayor’s race.  With just about 11 months to go until the 2009 primary election – many Pittsburgher’s are wondering if someone will challenge Luke Ravenstahl for mayor.  The founder of the DraftChelsa2009 blog is anonymous.  Mark Rauterkus posted about this on Saturday and stated that he is not the person behind the blog – he is running a poll on his blog asking if and when Chelsa Wagner should announce her bid for mayor.

In less that a year Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to vote for a new mayor.  I have been thinking about the mayors race since I read Brian O’Neill’s article “Mayor’s Race, 2009: What’s the Obama Effect.“  In this article O’Neill compares the results of the 2007 mayors race with the results of the 2008 Presidential Primary results in the city of Pittsburgh.

But as the city’s political junkies look toward yet another mayoral race in the spring of 2009, this map has intriguing brush strokes. Consider:

• Mayor Luke Ravenstahl’s home turf, the North Side, did not go for his favored candidate, Mrs. Clinton. About 62 percent of North Side voters went for Mr. Obama, slightly greater than his 59 percent slice in the city as a whole.

• In the November 2007 mayoral election, Mr. Ravenstahl’s greatest support came in largely black wards. Those places had little interest in Republican challenger Mark DeSantis, but those same wards lined up Tuesday with the prosperous East End, about the only area Mr. DeSantis carried last fall.

• It seems every prominent mayoral critic and/or potential challenger is an Obama supporter: Councilmen Bill Peduto, Doug Shields, Ricky Burgess and Patrick Dowd and City Controller Michael Lamb, to name a few. Being on Mr. Obama’s side this year may be helpful in the city’s black wards during next year’s Democratic primary.

The Burgher asks the same question in his blog post today.  In at least the past 2 mayoral elections, it has none be successful to start campaigning 3 months before the election day.

• 2005 Primary – Bob O’Connor have been campaigning for almost 10 years, Lamb got into the race in January and Peduto didn’t get serious about running until the end of February
• 2007 Primary – Ravenstahl had the upperhand by being the incumbent, Peduto didn’t start his campaign until January
• 2007 General – DeSantis didn’t kick into high gear until September

So if we are going to have a serious competition in 2009 – who is going to run and when are they going to get started?  Do you think anyone will be able to mount a serious campaign for mayor in 2009?  Who should run?  What should they be doing now?  Should someone run as an independent and challenge the democratic nominee in the general election.

But I have come across 2 different blog post of non-political bloggers that both noticed that there was a reference to Ravenstahl on Monday night foot ball. One author posted about this on LiveJournal’s Steelers Fan’s page.

The other author mentioned this on a blog about Sportscasting – The Sportscasters Talent Agency of America Blog.

Though nobody outside of
Pittsburgh would have caught this, an argument can be made that ESPN was campaigning for Ravenstahl.

Election Day in
Pittsburgh was the day after the game. Ravenstahl was running for re-election, and it is considered a breach of ethics in political coverage to feature a particular candidate in a local election the day before the vote.

Ravenstahl’s mention on the sign was not pertinent to the broadcast. Certainly Ravenstahl’s opponent, Mark DeSantis, would have done just about anything for such attention on a national stage.

Ravenstahl got a free “Don’t Forget to Vote For Me Tomorrow” reminder to the thousands watching the game in the City of Pittsburgh from a supposedly objective source in ESPN.

So I am not really sure that this is a big deal. I just think it is interesting that two different people, who are not the usual Pittsburgh political bloggers who are always out looking for a story both noticed the mention and posted about it. Don’t worry – the Pittsburgh bloggers posted about the story too – Null Space noticed the reference…

MNF had a pre-game scenelet titled ’smash mouth football’ to play up the Steelers-Ravens rivalry. It had a trailing image of a road sign for ‘Pittsburgh’ with a less than subtle tag line ‘Mayor Luke Ravenstahl 2007′. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such an explicit mayoral reference like that in an NFL pre-game show. All I can say is that if one could design the perfect product placement for a Pittsburgh audience, that may have been it.

What do you think? Just a coincidence or subtle campaign. I am surprised to see 3 different posts on the topics.

Thanks to everyone who voted in the last poll. As of today – 80% of Progress Pittsburgh readers are voting for Mark DeSantis on Tuesday. 14% of readers are voting for Ravenstal, 6% for Tony Olivia and 1% for Ryan Scott.
We are fairly certain that this poll was not hacked by either campaign. More »

I thought it might be interesting to compile a list of Blog endorsements in the mayor’s race. Know of others ? Leave a comment and we can update the list.

• The Burgh Boy
• changes his endorsement from DeSantis to Ravenstahl, suggests Mikey Mouse for County Executive
• Pittsburgh Pist-Gazette
• Endorses Mark DeSantis for Mayor
• 2 Political Junkies
• Maria is voting for Mark DeSantis
• Teacher. Wordsmith. Madman.
• has a DeSantis badge on the sidebar of the blog
• About-PittsburghPA.com
• Mosley is voting for DeSantis
• Sabrina’s Pittsburgh Chronicle
• SabrinaSpiher.com Endorses Mark DeSantis for Mayor of Pittsburgh

There are quite a few polls floating around the internet for the mayor’s race. The Pist-Gazette has done some man on the street polling in Brookline and East Liberty. KDKA has had a poll on their website for the mayoral election which has been hacked by some city employees.

We thought it would be interesting to see who Progress Pittsburgh readers are voting for on November 6.

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Election Day is less than a month away – political clubs and blogs have started to list their endorsements for the November 2007 election. Here is the Gertrude Stein Political Club Endorsement Slate… More »