Author: mmp

I was canvassing knocking on doors in Central Lawrenceville for most of today, and I couldn’t help but notice that, with the election only one day away, many of the households had been targeted by both campaigns.  I’d be hard pressed to come up with a prediction that I felt very comfortable with, but I’d guess that Obama might win the 9th ward by a few points.  Lawrenceville’s voting history does not really give too many clues.  There are probably a few more Obama signs around, but of course, if signs voted then we would not even need to bother going to polls.  That can be a signn of a little more enthusiasm, however.  I think the difference will be made by the new voters:  both new residents and residents who have lived in Lawrenceville their whole lives, but will be voting for the first time.

On Election Night, I will be liveblogging at this blog to make some sense of the returns as they are reported.  In the meantime, I’ve made a little cheat sheet to help you keep score.

As you may have read before, Pennsylvania will be selecting 158 delegates.  Most media outlets will be reporting the statewide numbers, but only 55 delegates will be selected based on proportionality of the statewide vote, and 103 will be determined based on proportionality within each of our 19 Congressional Districts.  (As a reminder, the Democratic nomination is won by the candidate who gets the most delegate votes at the convention, not by some other arbitrary measure that one campaign happens to find more beneficial.)

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Today is Sunday, April 20, and Pennsylvania’s Primary is Tuesday April 22.  If you visit the PA elections page, you find that they are testing their results page live, rather than offline.

* For the record, I do not believe that there is a conspiracy afoot to rig the election for Mike Huckabee, and probably not for Clinton either, but I did want to share this screenshot.

The period to register to vote before Pennsylvania’s April 22 Primary has ended, and the Democratic Party has set a new record.  Democratic registration has passed the 4 million mark–more than a 4% increase and the first time any party has had that many registered voters–and the Republican party has just over 3.2 million voters.

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This, from Daily Kos:

The DCCC has released its list of targeted races for the 2008 cycle, and it is manna from heaven for horserace junkies, and really all Democrats who want to feel optimistic about this fall.

Both of Western Pennsylvania’s Republican Congressmen–Tim Murphy and Phil English–are on the DCCC’s targeted list.  In addition, Freshman Democrat Jason Altmire’s seat is targeted by the DCCC for protection.

Between the presidential race and these congressional races, expect a LOT of advertising money to be spent in Western Pennsylvania once Fall comes around.

Elsewhere in the state, the DCCC is looking to finally win Jim Gerlach’s seat and will spend money to protect Patrick Murphy and Chris Carney.

If this is truly another groundswell year for Democrats, where they just can’t lose, we could be looking at a state congressional delegation with 14 Democrats and 5 Republicans.  What’s not clear is what impact a protracted primary fight among our Democratic presidential candidates will have on the down-ballot races around the state.

Pt 3.  The Prediction

In my previous two posts, I wrote more than anyone should really want to know about how delegates to the Democratic Convention will be selected and who those people will be.  In this post, I will get to the much more interesting and VERY much more speculative task of breaking down the state to predict what the results on April 22 will be.

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Pt 2. The People

If you missed yesterday’s post, I broke down how Pennsylvania will be selecting our 187 delegates.  They are broken down into five categories:  Unpledged Political Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs) and Unpledged Add-On Delegates (Superdelegates), Pledged Delegates (by Congressional District), Pledged At-Large Delegates, and Pledged PLEOs.

In this post, I’ll take a look at who our Superdelegates are, who some of the candidates running to be a Pledged Delegate are (especially here in Western PA), and who some of the other delegates are likely to be.

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Pt 1.  The Numbers 

We’re up!  Now that Mississippi voters have had their say, and Pennsylvania is going to have a short six weeks of campaign ads, candidate appearances, phone calls, and annoying blog comments before we walk into the voting booth.  (We’ve also still got another week and a half or so before the voter registration deadline—you MUST register to vote as a Democrat to vote in the Democratic Primary here.)

Pennsylvania will be sending a whopping 187 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver.  A candidate needs a majority of delegates (right now, that number is 2,025) to secure the nomination.  This post explains how we will be picking our 187, according to the state party’s delegate selection plan.

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Pittsburgh can expect to get plenty of TLC from 2008′s presidential candidates once the nominees are picked, but since when do we get any pre-Primary love?

Tom Vilsack announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in his Announcement Event Tour, which includes stops in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh
December 2nd
10:30am            Meeting with 14th Ward Democratic Committee
                         6th Avenue Presbyterian Church
                         1688 Murray Ave
                         Pittsburgh, PA

Pennsylvania’s 2008 Primary is scheduled for April 1, which puts us near last in the agressive Primary schedule, and makes our opinion on Democratic nominee nearly irrelevant, but because of his ties to our city (or for whatever reason), Gov. Vilsack has decided to pay us a visit.

The unofficial vote count at the end of Election Day had the Republicans holding control of the State House by a slim 102-101 majority, but control of the General Assembly still depends on the outcome of two close races in Chester County.

In the 156th legislative district, Republican Shannon Royer had 11,500 votes and Democrat and Progressive Majority candidate Barbara McIlvaine Smith had 11,481.  In the 167th district, Republican Duane Milne led Democrat and Progressive Majority candidate Anne Crowley 13,309 to 13,173.  Both races (open seats previously held by Republicans) are considered too close to call by Chester County elections officials in both parties, and the outcomes will depend on the counting of provisional and absentee ballots.

The tally of the several hundred votes that will determine the outcome of these races is being covered in real-time by Philadelphia Inquirer political reporter Carrie Budoff, who has been continuously posting on this blog set up just for this special occasion.

With this kind of coverage, not only do we get up-to-the-minute count updates:

Military and citizen overseas ballots in the 156th District also broke in favor of the Democrat. Smith is now behind Royer by 12 votes, according to Democratic lawyers. More in a few minutes.

but we’re also getting observations that wouldn’t otherwise be reported:

In the third-floor cafeteria of the government building, Republicans and Democrats sit on opposite sides of the room, at their own tables.

Not sure which are the cool kids.The Republicans at least seem to be laughing more. 

I can’t get my browser to navigate away.  I’m hooked.

The problems with Allegheny County’s electronic voting machines from under-training to the lack of a voter-verified paper ballot is well tread territory, but there are plenty of other pervasive changes in voting patterns that these new machines will bring in, and which will only become apparent once new voting patterns start to emerge.

Last Primary, some astute observers noticed the large number of write-in votes cast. [3.4% against Rendell in Allegheny County.] Whether this is due to the novelty of the new machines, or will continue–even in close races–has yet to be determined.

My prediction for the most important change that we’ll start to see after the General Election on Nov. 7 will be the rise in straight-party voting. On our old machines, you may remember that there was a lever to the left of each ballot question & race that would allow you to vote for each candidate in a particular party without having to go through the chore of making a decision in each and every race. On the new machines, we still still be able to do this, but the option to do so will be right in front of our faces. The first question that we will see (and one which will have a column all to itself) will look something like:

You may vote a Straight Party Ballot for the party of your choice by selecting the party below or you may Split your ballot by selecting the party of your choice below and voting for individual candidates in any other party.

DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLICAN
GREEN

Typically, what you’ll see in election results is drop-off from the number of votes cast for the top races to the races at the bottom. (In other words, maybe in a particular district there will be 200 votes cast in the senate race, 190 cast for governor, but only 175 for state rep.) If people perceive this question as one that must be answered or if it’s one that is easier for voters to find, then more people will use this option than on the old machines. Increased party-line voting would likely mean longer coattails for top-tier candidates, less drop-off, and–in Allegheny County–more votes for Democratic candidates in some of the lower-profile races.

Less drop-off will have a greater effect during presidential election years, when tens of thousands of voters are going to the polls only to vote for one particular race, but this year any of the Democratic candidates for State Representative in close races are likely to see a small benefit.

One of the most interesting questions this year will be in Council District 1, where there is a Special Election. Strictly speaking, a straight-party vote should not fill in a vote for Darlene Harris (the nominee picked by the Democratic committee), since that race is a different election than the General Election (even though it’s happening at the same time). If I had to guess, I would think that whoever programs these machines did not make the distinction