Progress Pittsburgh

Leave your predictions in the comment thread for the mayor’s race, Pittsburgh council races, or any of your favorites.  Winner gets bragging rights.  Trash talking is only allowed if you make a prediction yourself.

Have fun…

Over at p2pac, the Progress Pittsburgh Political Action Committee has announced their endorsement of four candidates for the 2009 Primary cycle.

From their announcement:

P2PAC develops, supports, and helps to elect candidates who demonstrate vision, progressive values, and electability… 

These endorsements represent four races where a group of dedicated citizens can make a MAJOR impact on the race…

• Natalia Rudiak, City Council District 4, nataliarudiak.com 
  • Click Here to Donate to Friends of Natalia Rudiak
  • Click Here to Volunteer
• Robert Daniel Lavelle, City Council District 6, lavelleforcouncil.com
  • Click Here to Donate to Citizens for Daniel Lavelle
  • Click Here to Volunteer
• Susan Banahasky, Magisterial District Judge 5-3-10, susanformagistrate.com 
  • Click Here to Donate to Friends for Susan Banahasky
  • Click Here to Volunteer
• Hugh McGough, Court of Common Pleas, mcgough4judge.com 
  • Click Here to Donate to McGough for Judge
  • Click Here to Volunteer

This series is written by Jennifer Rapach, a delegate representing PA-4

Wednesday Redux
 
There’s a couple of things I wanted to mention about Wednesday.  First, there was a really great video about veterans they showed.  It was very emotional, and there was not a dry eye in the house by the end of it.  You can see it here:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh-xZbeeKo4[/youtube]

More »

This series is written by Jennifer Rapach, a delegate representing PA-4

I got prime real estate on the floor of the convention right behind where CNN was broadcasting.  I was between Wolf Blitzer and Anderson Cooper.  I couple of people texted me and said they saw me.

More »

This series is written by Jennifer Rapach, a delegate representing PA-4

Ok, Dad – I got a liberal commie to sign your birthday card.

 
  More »

This series is written by Jennifer Rapach, a delegate representing PA-4.

Now do you see why I adore Brian Schweitzer?  Wasn’t he just awesome?  He is a damn good governor, who is down-to-earth, very entertaining and can work up a crowd.  The guy has done remarkable things for Montana, and has something like a 70% approval rating out there.
 
Only a couple of minor celebrity sightings Tuesday.  Chris Matthews from MSNBC was at our delegation breakfast, although he didn’t speak.  He was there because he’s from Scranton (Who the hell isn’t from Scranton these days?!  And who knew it would become a hotbed of politics?).  Another person is someone you won’t know unless you’re a complete geek like me – nerdy comedian Mo Rocca.  I got a picture with him, although when I asked for a picture, he gave me a look like, “why are you asking for a picture with a guy like me.”

More »

This series is written by Jennifer Rapach, a delegate representing PA-4. 

So yesterday started with our PA delegation breakfast.  Several big wigs spoke, including Governor Rendell, Senator Casey, and Brian Schweitzer, the Governor of Montana.  I’ve heard him speak before, and I adore him.  I was actually hoping he would be on the VP short list.  However, I’m very happy with Joe Biden.  Anyway, message of the day was party unity, and I have to say I’m feeling it.  I don’t know what the media are saying about the Clinton-Obama thing, but all the delegates I have come across are on the bus.  I’m not hearing anything about division.  All of the Hillary supporters I’ve talked to, while understandably disappointed that their candidate didn’t win, are behind Obama now.  They are wearing Obama pins and cheering on the floor.  So whatever nonsense is being stirred up by the media or the McCain Campaign is not accurate.  And you all know me well enough to know that I am honest in my politics, and I don’t try to spin things.

More »

The news is a few days old, but Tim Murphy, who represents Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, is one of 14 Republican members of Congress refusing to endorse John McCain.  Maybe he’s hoping that we will forget his unwavering support for the George Bush agenda and for John McCain’s 100-year war.

Remember this oldie from Tim Murphy?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hwh-OCFCOTc[/youtube]

Murphy’s opponent in the Fall is Democrat Steve O’Donnell.

Just saw that McCain is running this ad on NBC as Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final is starting:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI4mNspYdCA[/youtube]

McCain will be trying to seperate himself from Bush in Western PA as in a lot of other places around the country.  In the meantime, MoveOn.org will be reminding people how remarkably similar McCain and Bush are with the Bush-McCain challenge:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbBEQN9Hb8Y[/youtube]

Let’s see who else runs ads during the finals and how big of a buy McCain has on network TV here.  And LET’S GO PENS!

PA is left with four remaining undeclared superdelegates:  Reps. Mike Doyle and Jason Altmire of Southwest PA, Rep. Tim Holden of Harrisburg, and Rep. Bob Brady of Philadelphia.  As of today, Obama needs 61 more delegates to secure the nomination (though it is likely that after the Rules Committee meetings on May 31, that number will go up slightly.)

The decision for Mike Doyle to go public should be easy.  Obama won his district overwhelmingly and his former endorsee Gov. Bill Richardson has endorsed Obama.  Is Doyle afraid to go against Rendell?  Murtha?  Onorato?

Conventional wisdom is that Jason Altmire is supporting Obama, but he has yet to make a public endorsement.  Melissa Hart has already even put together an attack ad on Obama and Altmire together (seriously?  liberal kool-aid?)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDGsizFF6Es[/youtube]

Almire expressed his fear to endorse and his desire for the contest to end:

“Three months ago, everyone in the district was saying how great it was to have these strong candidates,” he said. “Now, whenever I’m at a rally or somewhere else, I hear people saying, ‘I used to like Jason, but if he endorses the one I don’t like, I’m not going to vote for him.’”

Nationwide, Obama’s superdelegate lead is up to 30.  Obama leads her among Governors, Congressmembers, Senators, and DNC Members.  Clinton leads Obama only among distinguished party leaders.

So, the question out there is will Doyle or Altmire be among those who put Obama over the top to officially to secure the nomination?

A few months ago, Mr. Super reminded us that “There are no undecided superdelegates–just undeclared ones.”  In otherwords, superdelegates–like most of the rest of us–have an idea who they personally support, but want to wait for the most opportune time to declare that support (or maybe they are hoping that they won’t have to declare their support until after a nominee is determined.)

More »

Two results that people seemed to be surprised about is that Obama won by so much in Pittsburgh (58%-41%) and that Obama did not win by more in Philadelphia (65%-35%).

Here’s a comparison of the two cities by census data (2006 estimates).  (Note that this is not necessarily representative of the registered Democratic electorate, but since both cities are overwhelmingly Democratic, we’re going to pretend that it’s pretty close, and it shouldn’t make too much of a difference for comparison.)

Philadelphia is a slightly younger city overall, though Pittsburgh has a higher proportion of the population both between the ages of 20 and 35 and over the age of 65.  Philadelphia has a much higher African American population, and they also have a higher Latino population.

I started to pull these numbers together to ask whether it is true that Pittsburgh overperformed and Philadelphia underperformed for Obama (based on who each candidate’s supposed base is), but I don’t think these numbers tell that story.  Here’s some outstanding questions I have:  Did the Pittsburgh or Philadelphia staff have a better ground game on Election Day?  Did the Obama campaign’s decision not to give out street money in Philadelphia cause ward chairs to sit the election out, or even work the streets for Clinton?

Progressive Democrats in Western Pennsylvania are used to depending on our population-rich neighbor to the east in statewide elections, but this should be a reminder to everyone in the State that when you are starting from behind, votes don’t come automatically.

On Mach 14, I looked at what Obama and Clinton each needed to get out of Election Day in Pennsylvania:

[Clinton] must-win by a large margin.  Obama currently leads Clinton by somewhere between 100 and 150 delegates and he leads in popular vote by over 800,000.  Pennsylvania is the last great chance for Clinton, but in order to cut Obama’s popular vote lead by even just half, she will need to win about 65% of the state’s popular vote, and in order to cut his delegate lead by 50, she will need to win pledged delegates 104 to 54.

It appears that Clinton won the state with just by about 9%, she picked up about 200,000 more voters than Obama, and she’s currently picked up about 12 delegates (though that will probably shrink to about 9, once all of the delegates are assigned).  It’s a clear win for her and a respectable margin, however she fell far short of what she needed to do to make a real dent in Obama’s lead.

What did Obama need to accomplish?

He needs to keep the statewide popular vote close by running up his vote in Philadelphia and running respectably in the rest of the state.  A real test for him will be to see how well he does among working-class white voters in the West, high income voters in the inner and outer suburbs of Philadelphia, and among Latinos in the Eastern side of the state.  Finally, the Obama campaign needs to prevent a win here by Clinton from being framed as the continuation of a “see-saw” battle.

Obama did manage to keep the vote close in many regions, but by taking only 65% of Philadlphia, and with turnout more than 100,000 votes lower than the 2004 General Election Kerry vote, he did not run the vote up as much as he might have hoped in Philly.  Clinton took most of Western PA, though Obama won the City of Pittsburgh 58%-42%, more than many predicted.  Results were mixed in Philadelphia’s suburbs, with Obama taking Delaware and Chester, and Clinton taking Montgomery and Bucks.  On the day of the election, most news reports were noting that Obama was not expecting to win, so the campaign did a good job of managing expectations.

Clinton made small gains, but both candidates are already on to Indiana and North Carolina, where those gains will either be erased or will grow a little more.

 Click Here to skip to the estimated delegate count.  Most recent comments are at the top.

4/23, 9:58- In the cool reflection of the morning, I see that I made one BIG goof.  I focused so much on the district-level results, that I royally screwed up the statewide split.  That’s only 30-25 in Clinton’s favor, so the total for Election Day stands at Clinton 83, Obama 71, with 4 still to be allocated.

1:19- For the night, I’m leaving my estimate at Clinton-86, Obama-68, 4 still to be allocated.

1:16- In Western PA, Obama won the 14th Congressional District, but Clinton won by a large amount in the rest of Allegheny County.  In Jack Murtha’s district (12), Clinton may have reached the 70% mark to gain an extra delegate, but I’ll have to leave it unassigned for the night.  Here, Clinton is leading 15-11.

1:10- Because 3 of the 4 districts in Central PA have an even number of delegates, it was nearly a wash.  Obama did well in Harrisburg and at Penn State.  Clinton did well elsewhere, and edged Obama 8-7 overall.

1:05- Clinton did exceptionally well in the Northeast, winning all three Congressional districts by large numbers, and winning delegates 10 to 4.

12:55- In the Southeast, I was surprised that Obama did not do better than 65% in Philadelphia.  A lot will be made of that over the next few days.  The two Philadelphia districts are still too close for me to be able to estimate.  In the collar counties, Obama did well in Chester and Delaware and Clinton won Montgomery and Bucks.  All-in-all, I have Obama taking the Southeast 24-20, with 3 outstanding.  Obama will likely get all 3 of these.

 12:27- I’ll be estimating as many of the delegate counts as possible, and give a full analysis tomorrow.

11:29- If the 10 point lead holds up (and it seems that it’s going to) I can estimate the statewide delegate split as Clinton 33, Obama 22.

11:21- I took some time to make some adjustments.  It’s clear at this point that noone is going to sweep any congressional districts.  I updated 5, 7, 10, 12, and 16.

11:01- Obama gets the final delegate in Erie.

10:56- Looks like I spoke too soon on saying the Obama could not break 65% in district 1.  It’s going to be close, so I’m going to be taking 1 away from Clinton there and throwing it back in the pot.

10:53- With Clinton apparently winning the 4th congressional district, the question remains what Jason Altmire, the undeclared superdelegate who is the Congressman in that district, will do.  He has been at a number of Obama events, but has not yet endorsed anyone.

10:50- Despite winning Pittsburgh, Allegheny County as a whole is going strongly to Clinton, so she will pick up the 4th and 18th, both 3-2 delegates.

10:47- Obama is speaking now, and he won our home district (14th)!

10:43- Obama is ahead by 24 points in Dauphin County (Harrisburg).  Clinton is leading by a lot in the rest of district 17.  This will split 2-2.

10:37- In Pittsburgh, it looks like Barack Obama is going to pull out a narrow victory, but it will be close.

10:31- Clinton will win Erie & the 3rd Congressional district.  She probably won’t break 70% to get the final delegate.

10:24- With 92% in in Philly, Obama will be below 5%, so I’ll estimate that Clinton will get the final delegate in district 1.

10:19- Clinton will win district 9, picking up 2 delegates to Obama’s 1.

10:11- Neither Clinton nor Obama will win more than 79% in the 14th, but the race for Pittsburgh is looking really close.  Chart updated.

10:07- Clinton will win district 11.  Not sure yet if she will get over 70% to pick up the extra delegate or not, but I’ve updated the chart to give her 3 there.

9:56- The only remaining question in the Philadelphia districts is whether late-reporting will push Obama up to over 65%.  I’m betting no, but I’ll hold out on calling the final delegate in each of those districts. 

9:45- With 63% in Philadelphia reporting, Obama will win districts 1 and 2, I’ll update the chart.

9:36- I’m starting to assign some of the Philadelphia Delegates.  It does not look like Obama will be breaking 80% there.

9:22- Results from Allegheny County have been remarkably slow to come in.  Only 5 precincts reporting so far.

9:08- With 1/4 of the votes in from Philadelphia, Obama is only up by 10 points.  That probably has more to do with the state being called than anything else.  I’m not sure what precincts in Philadelphia are still out, but Obama would need to be up by much more in that County at this point to really compete.

9:06- CNN and the BBC called the state for Clinton.  Maybe a bit early, but not much of a surprise.  Not nearly enough votes in yet to project delegates.

9:03- Just got a text message - Pittsburgh ward 9 district 1 (home of Len Bodack Sr in Central Lawrenceville), Obama lost by only 11 votes. 

8:47- What the hell, I’ll go ahead and call the State Auditor race for Jack Wagner and the State Attorney General for Morganelli.  I should be safe in those uncontested races. 

8:41- Obama leads 14 votes to 9 in Huntingdon County.  Clinton by about 600 votes in Philadelphia.  Neither of these results will hold up.  I’ll wait to post more numbers until there is something a little more useful.

8:37- First precincts coming in are from Philadelphia and Luzerne Counties.  Just a couple of thousand of votes in so far, but nothing of substance to report.  Numbers should start coming in.

8:35 - People have been coming into the party.  There’s a mix of Clinton and Obama supporters here.

8:10- Exit Polls:  This race will not be a blow-out

8:00- Polls are closed.  Elsewhere on the Burghosphere:  with 2 votes reporting, Dish calls it, Macyapper’s polling place had as many voters by 9:20 am as they expect all day, Pittsburgh Comet will be covering the returns,

7:45- We have another 15 minutes.  In the meantime, if you missed this gem from Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll at the Clinton rally, check this out:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu_W0VGATjY[/youtube]

7:36- Polls closing in half an hour.  People are putting up decorations for the returns party.  Planned Parenthood, the League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, and Progress Pittsburgh are hosting.

Here’s some anecdotes from the ground:

• At some precincts in Highland Park, they had beat 2004 General Election turnout by mid-morning!
• My wife had this conversation:
  -  9-yr-old:  Who are you voting for?
  -  TMP:  Ivoted for Obama.
  -  9-yr-old:  Me too! Well, I WISH I could
• First-time voters have been coming out of the woodwork in Oakland, Lawrenceville, and probably lots of other neighborhoods
• At the Obama staging area that was covering Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Bloomfield, and Friendship, all of the precincts had been canvassed by early afternoon.  The first sign of Clinton canvassers I saw in Lawrenceville was at about 5pm.

Early this Morning- It’s Election Day!  Tonight, starting at about 7:30pm or so, I’ll be liveblogging the Election Results from the party at Ava (Highland Ave, just south of Penn) hosted by the PA League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, and Progress Pittsburgh.  Come back for instantaneous analysis and a delegate count.

In the meantime, feel free to check some older posts:  delegate math, who the delegates will be, my prediction post, and what I’ll be looking for tonight.
Estimated Delegate Count

Barack Obama spoke in front of a crowd of over 12,000 this evening at the Peterson Events Center on the University of Pittsburgh’s campus.  The crowd was excited and on its feet for most of the night.  More pictures below the jump.

More »