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Ravenstahl weakening? With map

There’s been a little back and forth over whether the mayoral results show that Ravenstahl has weakened.  The argument that Luke 55% showing was something to be embarrassed by was made in the MSM by Jon Delano and Rich Lord.  Ravenstahl supporters point to Luke winning every city ward, as evidence of broad-based support.

Potter says that it doesn’t matter how much Luke won by, because it won’t force him to govern any differently.  I agree with Potter, in that I doubt that Luke will take heed for his rapid deterioration in support.  The administration will likely govern with just as much bravado as they always have.

I disagree that the results are completely irrelevant, however, because Luke has relied on his strong electoral support (in the past) to lend his capitol to other candidates.  We have already seen in this year’s primary that Ravenstahl has no coattails.  These results may be good news for Bruce Kraus and Patrick Dowd, who are both likely to see well-funded challengers whose best argument for election will be their close relationship with the mayor.  This may also give some political cover to Theresa Smith and Darlene Harris to act with more independence.

What is remarkable is the near-uniformity across the city where Luke’s support has decreased.  In the map below, I’ve shown the change in Luke’s win % from 2007 to 2009.  The more intense the blue, the greater the decrease; the more intense the red, the greater the increase.

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