The Race for PGH 2009

In less that a year Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to vote for a new mayor.  I have been thinking about the mayors race since I read Brian O’Neill’s article “Mayor’s Race, 2009: What’s the Obama Effect.“  In this article O’Neill compares the results of the 2007 mayors race with the results of the 2008 Presidential Primary results in the city of Pittsburgh.

But as the city’s political junkies look toward yet another mayoral race in the spring of 2009, this map has intriguing brush strokes. Consider:

• Mayor Luke Ravenstahl’s home turf, the North Side, did not go for his favored candidate, Mrs. Clinton. About 62 percent of North Side voters went for Mr. Obama, slightly greater than his 59 percent slice in the city as a whole.

• In the November 2007 mayoral election, Mr. Ravenstahl’s greatest support came in largely black wards. Those places had little interest in Republican challenger Mark DeSantis, but those same wards lined up Tuesday with the prosperous East End, about the only area Mr. DeSantis carried last fall.

• It seems every prominent mayoral critic and/or potential challenger is an Obama supporter: Councilmen Bill Peduto, Doug Shields, Ricky Burgess and Patrick Dowd and City Controller Michael Lamb, to name a few. Being on Mr. Obama’s side this year may be helpful in the city’s black wards during next year’s Democratic primary.

The Burgher asks the same question in his blog post today.  In at least the past 2 mayoral elections, it has none be successful to start campaigning 3 months before the election day.

• 2005 Primary – Bob O’Connor have been campaigning for almost 10 years, Lamb got into the race in January and Peduto didn’t get serious about running until the end of February
• 2007 Primary – Ravenstahl had the upperhand by being the incumbent, Peduto didn’t start his campaign until January
• 2007 General – DeSantis didn’t kick into high gear until September

So if we are going to have a serious competition in 2009 – who is going to run and when are they going to get started?  Do you think anyone will be able to mount a serious campaign for mayor in 2009?  Who should run?  What should they be doing now?  Should someone run as an independent and challenge the democratic nominee in the general election.