Liveblogging the Returns from Pittsburgh

 Click Here to skip to the estimated delegate count.  Most recent comments are at the top.

4/23, 9:58- In the cool reflection of the morning, I see that I made one BIG goof.  I focused so much on the district-level results, that I royally screwed up the statewide split.  That’s only 30-25 in Clinton’s favor, so the total for Election Day stands at Clinton 83, Obama 71, with 4 still to be allocated.

1:19- For the night, I’m leaving my estimate at Clinton-86, Obama-68, 4 still to be allocated.

1:16- In Western PA, Obama won the 14th Congressional District, but Clinton won by a large amount in the rest of Allegheny County.  In Jack Murtha’s district (12), Clinton may have reached the 70% mark to gain an extra delegate, but I’ll have to leave it unassigned for the night.  Here, Clinton is leading 15-11.

1:10- Because 3 of the 4 districts in Central PA have an even number of delegates, it was nearly a wash.  Obama did well in Harrisburg and at Penn State.  Clinton did well elsewhere, and edged Obama 8-7 overall.

1:05- Clinton did exceptionally well in the Northeast, winning all three Congressional districts by large numbers, and winning delegates 10 to 4.

12:55- In the Southeast, I was surprised that Obama did not do better than 65% in Philadelphia.  A lot will be made of that over the next few days.  The two Philadelphia districts are still too close for me to be able to estimate.  In the collar counties, Obama did well in Chester and Delaware and Clinton won Montgomery and Bucks.  All-in-all, I have Obama taking the Southeast 24-20, with 3 outstanding.  Obama will likely get all 3 of these.

 12:27- I’ll be estimating as many of the delegate counts as possible, and give a full analysis tomorrow.

11:29- If the 10 point lead holds up (and it seems that it’s going to) I can estimate the statewide delegate split as Clinton 33, Obama 22.

11:21- I took some time to make some adjustments.  It’s clear at this point that noone is going to sweep any congressional districts.  I updated 5, 7, 10, 12, and 16.

11:01- Obama gets the final delegate in Erie.

10:56- Looks like I spoke too soon on saying the Obama could not break 65% in district 1.  It’s going to be close, so I’m going to be taking 1 away from Clinton there and throwing it back in the pot.

10:53- With Clinton apparently winning the 4th congressional district, the question remains what Jason Altmire, the undeclared superdelegate who is the Congressman in that district, will do.  He has been at a number of Obama events, but has not yet endorsed anyone.

10:50- Despite winning Pittsburgh, Allegheny County as a whole is going strongly to Clinton, so she will pick up the 4th and 18th, both 3-2 delegates.

10:47- Obama is speaking now, and he won our home district (14th)!

10:43- Obama is ahead by 24 points in Dauphin County (Harrisburg).  Clinton is leading by a lot in the rest of district 17.  This will split 2-2.

10:37- In Pittsburgh, it looks like Barack Obama is going to pull out a narrow victory, but it will be close.

10:31- Clinton will win Erie & the 3rd Congressional district.  She probably won’t break 70% to get the final delegate.

10:24- With 92% in in Philly, Obama will be below 5%, so I’ll estimate that Clinton will get the final delegate in district 1.

10:19- Clinton will win district 9, picking up 2 delegates to Obama’s 1.

10:11- Neither Clinton nor Obama will win more than 79% in the 14th, but the race for Pittsburgh is looking really close.  Chart updated.

10:07- Clinton will win district 11.  Not sure yet if she will get over 70% to pick up the extra delegate or not, but I’ve updated the chart to give her 3 there.

9:56- The only remaining question in the Philadelphia districts is whether late-reporting will push Obama up to over 65%.  I’m betting no, but I’ll hold out on calling the final delegate in each of those districts. 

9:45- With 63% in Philadelphia reporting, Obama will win districts 1 and 2, I’ll update the chart.

9:36- I’m starting to assign some of the Philadelphia Delegates.  It does not look like Obama will be breaking 80% there.

9:22- Results from Allegheny County have been remarkably slow to come in.  Only 5 precincts reporting so far.

9:08- With 1/4 of the votes in from Philadelphia, Obama is only up by 10 points.  That probably has more to do with the state being called than anything else.  I’m not sure what precincts in Philadelphia are still out, but Obama would need to be up by much more in that County at this point to really compete.

9:06- CNN and the BBC called the state for Clinton.  Maybe a bit early, but not much of a surprise.  Not nearly enough votes in yet to project delegates.

9:03- Just got a text message - Pittsburgh ward 9 district 1 (home of Len Bodack Sr in Central Lawrenceville), Obama lost by only 11 votes. 

8:47- What the hell, I’ll go ahead and call the State Auditor race for Jack Wagner and the State Attorney General for Morganelli.  I should be safe in those uncontested races. 

8:41- Obama leads 14 votes to 9 in Huntingdon County.  Clinton by about 600 votes in Philadelphia.  Neither of these results will hold up.  I’ll wait to post more numbers until there is something a little more useful.

8:37- First precincts coming in are from Philadelphia and Luzerne Counties.  Just a couple of thousand of votes in so far, but nothing of substance to report.  Numbers should start coming in.

8:35 - People have been coming into the party.  There’s a mix of Clinton and Obama supporters here.

8:10- Exit Polls:  This race will not be a blow-out

8:00- Polls are closed.  Elsewhere on the Burghosphere:  with 2 votes reporting, Dish calls it, Macyapper’s polling place had as many voters by 9:20 am as they expect all day, Pittsburgh Comet will be covering the returns,

7:45- We have another 15 minutes.  In the meantime, if you missed this gem from Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll at the Clinton rally, check this out:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu_W0VGATjY[/youtube]

7:36- Polls closing in half an hour.  People are putting up decorations for the returns party.  Planned Parenthood, the League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, and Progress Pittsburgh are hosting.

Here’s some anecdotes from the ground:

• At some precincts in Highland Park, they had beat 2004 General Election turnout by mid-morning!
• My wife had this conversation:
  -  9-yr-old:  Who are you voting for?
  -  TMP:  Ivoted for Obama.
  -  9-yr-old:  Me too! Well, I WISH I could
• First-time voters have been coming out of the woodwork in Oakland, Lawrenceville, and probably lots of other neighborhoods
• At the Obama staging area that was covering Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Bloomfield, and Friendship, all of the precincts had been canvassed by early afternoon.  The first sign of Clinton canvassers I saw in Lawrenceville was at about 5pm.

Early this Morning- It’s Election Day!  Tonight, starting at about 7:30pm or so, I’ll be liveblogging the Election Results from the party at Ava (Highland Ave, just south of Penn) hosted by the PA League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, and Progress Pittsburgh.  Come back for instantaneous analysis and a delegate count.

In the meantime, feel free to check some older posts:  delegate math, who the delegates will be, my prediction post, and what I’ll be looking for tonight.
Estimated Delegate Count

	Where?	Delegates to Allocate	Obama	Clinton
Statewide		0	25	30
Congressional District 1	Southeast (Philly)	0	5	2
2	Southeast (Philly)	0	7	2
3	West (Erie)	0	2	3
4	West (Pittsburgh Suburbs)	0	2	3
5	Central (Penn State)	0	2	2
6	Southeast (Philly Suburbs)	0	3	3
7	Southeast (Philly Suburbs)	0	3	4
8	Southeast (Philly Suburbs)	0	3	4
9	Central (Altoona)	0	1	2
10	Northeast	0	1	3
11	Northeast (Wilkes Barre – Scranton)	0	1	4
12	West	0	1	4
13	Southeast (Philly Suburbs)	0	3	4
14	West (Pittsburgh)	0	4	3
15	Northeast (Lehigh Valley)	0	2	3
16	Southeast (Lancaster)	0	2	2
17	Central (Harrisburg)	0	2	2
18	West (Pittsburgh Suburbs)	0	2	3
19	Central (York)	0	2	2
Total		0	73	85

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