It’s All About the Delegates

On Election Night, I will be liveblogging at this blog to make some sense of the returns as they are reported.  In the meantime, I’ve made a little cheat sheet to help you keep score.

As you may have read before, Pennsylvania will be selecting 158 delegates.  Most media outlets will be reporting the statewide numbers, but only 55 delegates will be selected based on proportionality of the statewide vote, and 103 will be determined based on proportionality within each of our 19 Congressional Districts.  (As a reminder, the Democratic nomination is won by the candidate who gets the most delegate votes at the convention, not by some other arbitrary measure that one campaign happens to find more beneficial.)

It will be helpful to take a look at what county makes up the largest part of each Congressional District as the results come in.  Below, I’ve listed the county where the most votes will come from within each CD.  This is an estimate, based on past voting patterns in congressional primaries, skewed slightly based on general election performance to account for increased registration in some counties.

On Election Night, this is what I’m going to be looking for:

Southeast

• 93% of CD 1 is Philadelphia.  7 delegates at stake.  Obama will need to go a few points over 65% in the county to get a 5-2 split.
• 91% of CD 2 is Philadelphia.  9 delegates at stake.  Obama will need to go a few points over 62% in the county to get a 6-3 split.
• 52% of CD 13 is Montgomery.  7 delegates at stake.  If Obama wins with more than 55% or so, he may get a 5-2 split.  If Clinton wins by a large margin, it may be close who will get the 4-3 split.
• 37% of CD 6 is Chester.  4 delegates at stake.  If one candidate or the other wins by more than 65% here and in Berks, they could possibly pick up a 3-1 split.
• 71% of CD 7 is Delaware.  7 delegates at stake.  The winner here will likely get the 4-3 split.
• 93% of CD 8 is Bucks.  7 delegates at stake.  The winner here will likely get a 4-3 split.
• 68% of CD 16 is Lancaster.  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate wins by a HUGE margin, it will be a 2-2 split.

Northeast

• 22% of CD 10 is Lackawanna.  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate wins by more than 63% consistently across this corner of the state, it will be a 2-2 split.
• 42% of CD 11 is Luzerne.  5 delegates at stake.  If this is close, we will want to look at Lackawanna, which includes Scranton, and 30% of this county is also in CD 11.  Winner will get a 3-2 split
• 45% of CD 15 is Lehigh.  5 delegates at stake.  A 3-2 split will likely go to the winner.

Central

• 37% of CD 17 is Dauphin (including Harrisburg).  4 delegates at stake.  Unless one candidate runs away with this, it will be a 2-2 split.
• 57% of CD 19 is York.  4 delegates at stake.  Will one candidate win by more than 65% here?
• 19% of CD 9 is Blair.  3 delegates at stake.  If Blair and Franklin are consistent with the rest of the South-Central counties, the winner will get a 2-1 split.
• 23% of CD 5 is Centre.  4 delegates at stake.  Penn State is in this county, so Obama should fare better here than in the rest of the district. 

Western

• 100% of CD 14 is Allegheny.   7 delegates at stake.  All of Pittsburgh is within CD 14, but the county also includes large parts of two other districts (see below).  Clinton will likely do better in the county as a whole than in CD 14 itself, so if the county race is relatively close, Obama will get a 4-3 split in CD 14.
• 42% of CD 4 is Allegheny.  5 delegates at stake.  Clinton’s numbers for CD 4 will be higher than the county.
• 58% of CD 18 is Allegheny.  5 delegates at stake.  Same story as CD 4.
• 48% of CD 3 is Erie.  5 delegates at stake.  Clinton will likely do better in the CD as a whole than the county.
• 23% of CD 12 is Cambria.  5 delegates at stake.  If this is consistent with Westmoreland, the winner will get the 3-2 split.

For what it’s worth, my Election Day predictions from a few weeks ago are here.  Come back Tuesday night for liveblogging of the results from the League of Young Voters / Sierra Club / Progress Pittsburgh Election Night returns party.