Winning Pennsylvania
| March 14, 2008 | Posted by mmp under 2008, 2008 Primary Election April, Elections, Pennsylvania, Politics |
Pt 3. The Prediction
In my previous two posts, I wrote more than anyone should really want to know about how delegates to the Democratic Convention will be selected and who those people will be. In this post, I will get to the much more interesting and VERY much more speculative task of breaking down the state to predict what the results on April 22 will be.
First, a couple of disclaimers. (1) I am solidly behind Barack Obama for president. Not only do I think that he has the judgement, disposition, and integrity to be a phenomenal president, but I also believe that he will be a transformation figure in American politics who will change the way that we view the political landscape in the country. (2) I also believe that Hillary Clinton would be a good president, but I do not believe that she can win the nomination without seriously damaging the Democratic Party’s chances of beating John McCain in November and without hurting down-ballot Democrats throughout the country for at least the next four years.
The Big Picture
First of all, let’s take a look at where the race stands and where Pennsylvania fits in. Senator Clinton currently is behind in the delegate count, the popular vote, and the number of states won, and it’s unlikely or near-impossible for her to catch up in any of these before the convention. Pennsylvania is extremely critical to her campaign. Her argument that Superdelegates should ignore all of those metrics in addition to polling that shows Senator Obama as a stronger General Election candidate against McCain is that she can win the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania in the Primary season. Whether or not that argument holds water, clearly Pennsylvania is a must-win for her, and she must-win by a large margin. Obama currently leads Clinton by somewhere between 100 and 150 delegates and he leads in popular vote by over 800,000. Pennsylvania is the last great chance for Clinton, but in order to cut Obama’s popular vote lead by even just half, she will need to win about 65% of the state’s popular vote, and in order to cut his delegate lead by 50, she will need to win pledged delegates 104 to 54.
The picture for Obama is different. Winning Pennsylvania should be a knock out punch, but this will be a tough win for him to pull out. Obama needs to keep reminding people that on May 6, Indiana and North Carolina will be selecting a total of 187 pledged delegates, worth more than our 158. He needs to keep the statewide popular vote close by running up his vote in Philadelphia and running respectably in the rest of the state. A real test for him will be to see how well he does among working-class white voters in the West, high income voters in the inner and outer suburbs of Philadelphia, and among Latinos in the Eastern side of the state. Finally, the Obama campaign needs to prevent a win here by Clinton from being framed as the continuation of a “see-saw” battle, as he has been ahead in pledged delegates the entire campaign, ever since the results from Iowa came in.
Pledged Delegates by District
On to the business of picking numbers:
Southeast:
Philadelphia should be Obama’s strongest area. I would look for increased Democratic registration and large turnout. Although Mayor Nutter and Governor Rendell are going for Clinton, I would not expect these endorsements to be followed all the way down through ward leadership and to the voters. The inner suburbs have become solidly Democratic, and the outer suburbs have shown signs of a long term shift from Republican to Democratic, which drove the victory of Representative Patrick Murphy and almost led to Lois Murphy defeating Jim Gerlach twice. The question here will be who is able to pick up these new Democrats.
|
1 |
Obama will want to bank on huge turnout in this Philadelphia district. 65% is not unlikely, and I will go out on a limb and say that he can reach this number. If Clinton is able to make inroads with many African American voters here, then she could possibly keep his win to a 4-3 delegate split. | Obama 5-2 |
|
2 |
This is the largest district in the state. Obama will also want to run up his vote total here. | Obama 6-3 |
|
13 |
Obama will win the Philadelphia area of this district, but with Rep. Schwartz’ endorsement, Clinton may pick up the advantage elsewhere. This will be a district worth keeping a close eye on for both candidates. | Clinton 4-3 |
|
6 |
This will also be a toss-up, I’d give a slight edge to Clinton, but not by a large majority. | Clinton 3-3 |
|
7 |
This could also go either way, but with a number of high income Democrats here that have been part of Obama’s base, I’d give him the edge. | Obama 4-3 |
|
8 |
Another district that may be close. With Patrick Murphy’s help, I’ll give the edge to Obama | Obama 4-3 |
|
16 |
Clinton could potentially run up the vote here enough to net two delegates, but that may be too steep of an order in this district | Clinton 2-2 |
Northeast:
Clinton should do well in Pennsylvania’s Northeast, especially where near the border of New York and New Jersey. Obama could make a strong case in the Lehigh Valley, especially to the rustbelt cities of Bethlemen and Allentown, but he will have to spend time there if he wants to pick up those votes.
|
10 |
Clinton has a potential to net 2 delegates here with a good showing in the Northeastern-most corner of the state. It should be possible for the Obama campaign to keep this close and pull a 2-2 delegate tie, but I will give this district to Clinton. | Clinton 3-1 |
|
11 |
Obama’s best chance in this district, will be to work Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, but Clinton has the edge here. | Clinton 3-2 |
|
15 |
This district is also Clinton’s to lose. | Clinton 3-2 |
Central:
In general, Central PA should be prime for Clinton to win pretty consistently across these counties. One indication of whether Obama may be able to pick up some extra votes at Penn State and in Harrisburg will be to take a look at the number of new voter registrations there in a week or two.
|
17 |
If Obama is able to gain a large vote total in Harrisburg, he may be able to keep this close, but I give the edge to Clinton. | Clinton 2-2 |
|
19 |
In this Central part of the state that includes Gettysburg and York, Clinton should do well, and she just may be able to break 63% here. | Clinton 3-1 |
|
9 |
This district borders Western Maryland and shares a demographic where Clinton has done well. | Clinton 2-1 |
|
5 |
This will be a very interesting district to watch. Large sections should be prime Clinton areas, but it also includes Penn State. Obama could potentially pick up a huge number of new voters here, but I predict that Clinton will just beat him out district-wide. | Clinton 2-2 |
Western:
Like Ohio, Clinton starts off with a large advantage here. One thing that could shake up the landscape would be an Edwards endorsement. I expect Obama to make a big effort to win Pittsburgh, which will not be automatic. Picking up an endorsement from Jack Murtha could be key for Obama as well.
|
14 |
Unlike a lot of urban areas around the country, I do not believe that Obama will run away with the City of Pittsburgh. The endorsement today of Clinton by Mayor Ravenstahl and County Executive Onorato may actually help solidify Obama’s coalition within the city, and Obama will probably win by a small majority here. In the rest of the district, Obama ought to be able to hold his own as well, and I’ll give a slight edge to Obama. | Obama 4-3 |
|
4 |
In Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs, I don’t see how Clinton gets less than 50% or more than 70%. | Clinton 3-2 |
|
18 |
This could be a surprise pickup for Obama, if the new Democrats south of Pittsburgh in Mt. Lebanon and progressive Democrats in Dormont turn out big for him, but I’ll still predict a win for Clinton. | Clinton 3-2 |
|
3 |
Like the Lehigh Valley, Obama has a real opportunity to reach out to Erie and Pennsylvania’s Northwest, but this district also has to be considered to be favorable to Clinton. | Clinton 3-2 |
|
12 |
Murtha’s gerrymandered district includes a lot of older working-class Democrats who should be a natural base for Clinton. | Clinton 3-2 |
Statewide, I expect to Clinton to carry the popular vote 53% to 45%. Recent polling has had Clinton up by double-digits. So the pledged delegate count would break down this way:
| Obama | Clinton | |
| Pledged Delegates by District | 50 | 53 |
| At-Large Delegates | 16 | 19 |
| Pledged PLEOs | 9 | 11 |
| Total Pledged Delegates | 75 | 83 |
What to Look for On Election Night
* Statewide Turnout: In the 2004 primary (when Kerry was already the presumed nominee), turnout in the Democratic Primary was just under 790,000. The 2004 general election had a turnout of just over 2,900,000 voters for Kerry. Turnout should be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million. The closer we get to that general election number will be good news for Democrats in November.
* Philadelphia Turnout: In the 2004 general election, Philadelphia County had over 540,000 Kerry voters. If turnout there is any higher, this will be a good sign for Obama.
* Montgomery, Bucks, Chester Counties: If these counties outside of Philadelphia are all won by a large margin for one candidate or the other, I would expect a good night for that candidate.
* Allegheny County: Neither candidate will win the state without winning Pittsburgh and the surrounding suburbs.
|
About : |
Loading ...
I got to say, I am underwhelmed thus far by Obama’s presence in the state. If he punts on PA, the momentum thing could make the superdelegate’s decisions a little too easy.
I don’t mean to be querrelous, but since you are writing in the first-person … who are you? Since the redesign, there is no indication of who is responsible for the trenchant analysis at Progress Pittsburgh.
Your 3 posts, especially the breakdown of delegates and who they are is very helpful. Overall though, it was a helluva a lot of keystrokes to tell us that you’re an Obama supporter. I note that your prediction that Hillary will win PA by 8 percent is within the margin of loss–less than 10 percent–that Obama says will actually equal a “victory” in the state for him. Thanks again though for the nuggets of useful facts.
Fascinating — thanks for all the detailed work.
Interestingly, the Obama campaign’s spreadsheet released in early February — which turned out to be a remarkably accurate project of the March 4, Wyoming, and Mississippi results — projects the Pennsylvania delegates as … 75-83.
More analysis of the spreadsheet and its implications at http://www.talesfromthe.net/jon/?p=106#more-106
Smokescreen, guessing the popular vote count is much more arbitrary than the delegate count. I’m much more interested in seeing how the delegate count breaks down.
-Matt
Bram, I wouldn’t say that Obama is punting on PA, but I do think he’s got to do a better job of managing expectations for his performance than he did in Ohio.
Worth noting too that he gave the most important speech of his campaign in our state.
-Matt
Jon, great post. The interesting this about our system is how narrow of a range the delegate-split can reasonbly fall in. What’s amazing is that anyone ever secures the nomination before the convention.
-Matt
“Worth noting too that he gave the most important speech of his campaign in our state.”
Yes. That is making it harder to tamp down my own personal expectations-setting apparatus, but I am trying. Suffice to say, deep within the comments of PP, that the haymaker isn’t totally out of the question.
What I find interesting is the two sided strategy that HRC is employing.In Michigan she wants a “do over”to secure the rights of all voters. In PA her surrogate Ed Rendell is promoting the theory that the popular vote doesn’t matter nor does the delegate count,it is the will of the super delegates that is supreme,effectively working to keep the turnout down.
The Obama team just offered a 50/50 distribution of Michigan’s delegation that was shot down by Team Clinton.
Obama is on his way to spend a significant amount of time in PA. We need to get the vote out for this man to keep Hillary’s win to an absolute minimum. We’ll get this race over and then get Obama ready for the general.
READ THROUGH THIS AND FACTOR IN A POSSIBLE TRIAL AND PERJURY CHARGE…..
The Clinton’s are named defendants in a Civil Fraud Case connected to Campaign Finance irregularities and have not disclosed the appeal of the case. There will be a trial date set at a hearing on April 25th, just 3 days after the key Pennsylvania Primary for the Fraud Case Paul v. Clinton in the Los Angeles Superior Court. Plaintiff says he will call Gov Rendell will be a witness in the case. He probably should not be raising funds for Michigan until he has answered questions about this 2000 Clinton Fundraiser. From what I understand, this case began when prior to Sen. Clinton’s 2000 New York Senate campaign and also raised donations for Pres. Clinton’s Library.
We don’t know the Clinton’s side of the story because they have not disclosed this. But Peter Paul tells his side of the story on Video.
Just Google: “Hillary Uncensored”
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019
Los Angeles Superior Court of Appeals: http://www.lasuperiorcourt.org
Then click on Civil Case Summaries and enter case number to see case history.
Case Number: BC304174
Los Angeles Superior Court Public Information Office at (213) 974-5227.
The GOP has utilized the services of a 527 Citizen’s United to produce a 90 Minute Movie they are already showing to defeat her in the Fall if she wins the nomination. The GOP uses her Fraud Case in their movie as one of many reasons she should not be President.
This is the Movie that the Citizens United has created for the GOP to for the fall.
1) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_PEHskBuQg
2) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5_SfPvtY-s
3) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog6WBL7jog
4) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqlYlTxnUdE
5) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9hXf5yckbY
6) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKftVPA85jI
7) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCQOgTKtNhA
9) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm-5MrOrqPE
Today Clinton admitted that she didn’t run off the tarmac in Bosnia under gunfire. She switched her story only because she was caught in her lie due to the fact that news footage of her casual exit there to pose for photo opps proved that she was BSing. Is that what you want in a leader? I think not! She is not entitled to the presidency simply because she is a Clinton. I applaud Bill Richardson for his bravery in standing up to the Clintons and coming out to support Barack. Barack has vision, heart, vast intelligence, AND more years in elected office than Hillary!
Here are some questions Hillary must answer:
1) Why did she lie about her foreign policy experience in Bosnia. Even Sinbad the comedian was with her on this trip and claims she is full of BS. There were never in any danger.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/03/sinbad_unloads_on_hillary_clin.html
2) Why did she lie about her experience in Ireland?
4) Why did 3 Arab countries and 3 other Arab Business men (with ties to Wahabism) donated huge sums to the Clinton Library and why won’t the Clintons release the list of donors to the librarywww.clinscandals2008.com
5) Why did Denise Rich donate 70K to Hillary’s senate run after the Clinton pardoned Marc Rich. He also donated 450K to the Clinton Library?
6) How much money did both her brothers make for getting felons pardoned by the clintons at midnight of his last night in office?
7) Why did Bill gut the inteligence service and refuse to hire Arabic translators?
OBAMA WILL UNITE
HILLARY WILL DIVIDE
This week, Hillary, a consumate Actress & Mistress of Spin, sat down with her arch enemey, Richard Mellon Scaithe in Pittsburgh, the very one who during her White House years who accused her of the murder of Vince Foster and said that Bill and she ahd committed 60 murders to hide their crimes, in an ill-timed manner to re-introduce the Rev. Wright issue — by the way, the very Rev. Wright that they Invited to the White House. Then they sent out Sen. McGovern to re-introduce the Gender Fight, so now we have a racial and gender fight to instigate more division while trying to Divert attention from her Big Gaf, the Bosnia Tale of Sniper Fire, which we all know now is a complete Fabrication told THREE times, which is a betrayal of the public trust and goes right to the Heart of character. And, if it was not for Rush Limbaugh, and Bill sitting with Rush during the Texas Primarys, Barack would have won Texas but for the 100,000 Republican votes casted for Hillary which put her slightly over the top. I say no more “do and say anything” politicians to win. As for her Tonya Harding, Tonya was sent packing in disgrace! I say “Chickens Finally Come Home to Roost”!