The Race for PGH 2009
In less that a year Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to vote for a new mayor. I have been thinking about the mayors race since I read Brian O’Neill’s article “Mayor’s Race, 2009: What’s the Obama Effect.“ In this article O’Neill compares the results of the 2007 mayors race with the results of the 2008 Presidential Primary results in the city of Pittsburgh.
But as the city’s political junkies look toward yet another mayoral race in the spring of 2009, this map has intriguing brush strokes. Consider:
• Mayor Luke Ravenstahl’s home turf, the North Side, did not go for his favored candidate, Mrs. Clinton. About 62 percent of North Side voters went for Mr. Obama, slightly greater than his 59 percent slice in the city as a whole.
• In the November 2007 mayoral election, Mr. Ravenstahl’s greatest support came in largely black wards. Those places had little interest in Republican challenger Mark DeSantis, but those same wards lined up Tuesday with the prosperous East End, about the only area Mr. DeSantis carried last fall.
• It seems every prominent mayoral critic and/or potential challenger is an Obama supporter: Councilmen Bill Peduto, Doug Shields, Ricky Burgess and Patrick Dowd and City Controller Michael Lamb, to name a few. Being on Mr. Obama’s side this year may be helpful in the city’s black wards during next year’s Democratic primary.
The Burgher asks the same question in his blog post today. In at least the past 2 mayoral elections, it has none be successful to start campaigning 3 months before the election day.
- 2005 Primary - Bob O’Connor have been campaigning for almost 10 years, Lamb got into the race in January and Peduto didn’t get serious about running until the end of February
- 2007 Primary - Ravenstahl had the upperhand by being the incumbent, Peduto didn’t start his campaign until January
- 2007 General - DeSantis didn’t kick into high gear until September
So if we are going to have a serious competition in 2009 - who is going to run and when are they going to get started? Do you think anyone will be able to mount a serious campaign for mayor in 2009? Who should run? What should they be doing now? Should someone run as an independent and challenge the democratic nominee in the general election.
PennFuture invites you to a town hall meeting
Come to the Pittsburgh Town Hall Meeting to learn about PennFuture’s Campaign for Great Green Jobs.
Tuesday May 13, 11:30-1:00 p.m.
Lunch provided, RSVP required
GSP Consulting
Landmarks Building, Station Square
100 West Station Square Drive, Suite 500
Learn how you can save money, fight global warming, and create Great Green Jobs for Pennsylvania.
Speakers:
- Kathleen McGinty, Secretary, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
· Dr. Jerry Paytas, GSP Consulting
· Chris Koch, GTECH
- Jeaneen Zappa, Green Building Alliance
- Heather Sage, PennFuture
- Representatives from local renewable energy and energy efficiency companies
The meeting will outline the statewide campaign with more than 125 endorsers, geared to move legislation forward in the State Senate which would provide state investment and incentives in clean energy and energy conservation. Pennsylvania needs this legislation NOW, if we are to be part of the new clean energy economy.
Two bills before the State Senate, the Energy Savings Bill – House Bill 2200 and the Clean Energy Funding Bill – Special Session House Bill 1, best exemplify the changes needed to bring Pennsylvania into the new energy economy. These bills would give families and businesses the tools and information they need to cut electricity costs and their energy bills, fight global warming, and create Great Green Jobs for Pennsylvania.
Come to this town hall meeting to find out how you can be part of the solution. Stop by for coffee, tea, and lunch with the people already working to build a sustainable Pennsylvania. Registration form is online to RSVP.
Sponsored by Citizens for Pennsylvania’s Future (PennFuture) and GSP Consulting
To RSVP and for more information, call 412-258-6681 or email sage@pennfuture.org
Union Project community Meetings on East Liberty
Union Project community Meetings on East Liberty
Originally uploaded by progresspittsburgh
Councilman Ricky Burgess talks with community members at the Union Project. The Union Project has been hosting weekly meetings on East Liberty for the past 5 weeks. Topics covered include housing, jobs, neighborhood association, the new Bakery Square develoment and safety.
Click on the photo for some additional pictures of the event.
PA Superdelegate Update
A few months ago, Mr. Super reminded us that “There are no undecided superdelegates–just undeclared ones.” In otherwords, superdelegates–like most of the rest of us–have an idea who they personally support, but want to wait for the most opportune time to declare that support (or maybe they are hoping that they won’t have to declare their support until after a nominee is determined.)
links for 2008-04-30
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Mike Veon closes his lobby shop. Hasn’t returned phone calls since Jan.
Foundation for Accountability?
Yesterday, City Council approved the distribution of public dollars through a private foundation. Councilor Ricky Burgess is planning to funnel funds allocated to his district through the Poise Foundation. For more details, see this article.
What does everyone think of this strategy in terms of accountability? It seems like a good idea to take the politics out of funding and evaluate applications based on merit. However, is it problematic to turn public funds over to a private organization for distribution? Do we need to or should we just expect a higher standard of evaluation from our public institutions?
links for 2008-04-28
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Great post from The Burgh Report that summarizes the requests of the PWSA to City Council and City Council’s reaction to their last minute request to extend their charter fro another 10 years.
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Post-Gazette editorial and link to map of Pittsburgh by ward for Clinton/Obama - will these voting patterns have an effect on the Mayor’s race in 2009? There are some interesting things to note - many of the wards that supported Ravenstahl’s voted for Oba
no photos, please
Does anyone have a p icture of the poster that was distributed to polling places by the Allegheny County Board of Elections proscribing any photography inside the polling place? I was staring straight at the one in my precinct for the better part of Tuesday but stupidly forgot I could take a picture of the poster, if not the polling place itself. 
I’ve looked around online but haven’t found any ordinance or mention in the home rule charter or any other instructions at the state level proscribing photography inside the polling place. Am I missing something?
Are we all missing something?
I’d like some clarification, personally. Join me at County Council’s next regular meeting on May 6 to ask questions.
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Two results that people seemed to be surprised about is that Obama won by so much in Pittsburgh (58%-41%) and that Obama did not win by more in Philadelphia (65%-35%).
Here’s a comparison of the two cities by census data (2006 estimates). (Note that this is not necessarily representative of the registered Democratic electorate, but since both cities are overwhelmingly Democratic, we’re going to pretend that it’s pretty close, and it shouldn’t make too much of a difference for comparison.)
|
|
Pittsburgh |
Philadelphia |
| Population 20-35 |
23.5% |
20.2% |
| Population 65 and Older |
15.4% |
13.0% |
| Median Age |
37.9 |
35.4 |
| Median Household Income |
$31,779 |
$33,229 |
| African American Population |
26.3% |
44.3% |
| Latino Population |
1.8% |
10.5% |
Philadelphia is a slightly younger city overall, though Pittsburgh has a higher proportion of the population both between the ages of 20 and 35 and over the age of 65. Philadelphia has a much higher African American population, and they also have a higher Latino population.
I started to pull these numbers together to ask whether it is true that Pittsburgh overperformed and Philadelphia underperformed for Obama (based on who each candidate’s supposed base is), but I don’t think these numbers tell that story. Here’s some outstanding questions I have: Did the Pittsburgh or Philadelphia staff have a better ground game on Election Day? Did the Obama campaign’s decision not to give out street money in Philadelphia cause ward chairs to sit the election out, or even work the streets for Clinton?
Progressive Democrats in Western Pennsylvania are used to depending on our population-rich neighbor to the east in statewide elections, but this should be a reminder to everyone in the State that when you are starting from behind, votes don’t come automatically.
The Big Picture
On Mach 14, I looked at what Obama and Clinton each needed to get out of Election Day in Pennsylvania:
[Clinton] must-win by a large margin. Obama currently leads Clinton by somewhere between 100 and 150 delegates and he leads in popular vote by over 800,000. Pennsylvania is the last great chance for Clinton, but in order to cut Obama’s popular vote lead by even just half, she will need to win about 65% of the state’s popular vote, and in order to cut his delegate lead by 50, she will need to win pledged delegates 104 to 54.
It appears that Clinton won the state with just by about 9%, she picked up about 200,000 more voters than Obama, and she’s currently picked up about 12 delegates (though that will probably shrink to about 9, once all of the delegates are assigned). It’s a clear win for her and a respectable margin, however she fell far short of what she needed to do to make a real dent in Obama’s lead.
What did Obama need to accomplish?
He needs to keep the statewide popular vote close by running up his vote in Philadelphia and running respectably in the rest of the state. A real test for him will be to see how well he does among working-class white voters in the West, high income voters in the inner and outer suburbs of Philadelphia, and among Latinos in the Eastern side of the state. Finally, the Obama campaign needs to prevent a win here by Clinton from being framed as the continuation of a “see-saw” battle.
Obama did manage to keep the vote close in many regions, but by taking only 65% of Philadlphia, and with turnout more than 100,000 votes lower than the 2004 General Election Kerry vote, he did not run the vote up as much as he might have hoped in Philly. Clinton took most of Western PA, though Obama won the City of Pittsburgh 58%-42%, more than many predicted. Results were mixed in Philadelphia’s suburbs, with Obama taking Delaware and Chester, and Clinton taking Montgomery and Bucks. On the day of the election, most news reports were noting that Obama was not expecting to win, so the campaign did a good job of managing expectations.
Clinton made small gains, but both candidates are already on to Indiana and North Carolina, where those gains will either be erased or will grow a little more.
Liveblogging the Returns from Pittsburgh
Click Here to skip to the estimated delegate count. Most recent comments are at the top.
4/23, 9:58- In the cool reflection of the morning, I see that I made one BIG goof. I focused so much on the district-level results, that I royally screwed up the statewide split. That’s only 30-25 in Clinton’s favor, so the total for Election Day stands at Clinton 83, Obama 71, with 4 still to be allocated.
1:19- For the night, I’m leaving my estimate at Clinton-86, Obama-68, 4 still to be allocated.
1:16- In Western PA, Obama won the 14th Congressional District, but Clinton won by a large amount in the rest of Allegheny County. In Jack Murtha’s district (12), Clinton may have reached the 70% mark to gain an extra delegate, but I’ll have to leave it unassigned for the night. Here, Clinton is leading 15-11.
1:10- Because 3 of the 4 districts in Central PA have an even number of delegates, it was nearly a wash. Obama did well in Harrisburg and at Penn State. Clinton did well elsewhere, and edged Obama 8-7 overall.
1:05- Clinton did exceptionally well in the Northeast, winning all three Congressional districts by large numbers, and winning delegates 10 to 4.
12:55- In the Southeast, I was surprised that Obama did not do better than 65% in Philadelphia. A lot will be made of that over the next few days. The two Philadelphia districts are still too close for me to be able to estimate. In the collar counties, Obama did well in Chester and Delaware and Clinton won Montgomery and Bucks. All-in-all, I have Obama taking the Southeast 24-20, with 3 outstanding. Obama will likely get all 3 of these.
12:27- I’ll be estimating as many of the delegate counts as possible, and give a full analysis tomorrow.
11:29- If the 10 point lead holds up (and it seems that it’s going to) I can estimate the statewide delegate split as Clinton 33, Obama 22.
11:21- I took some time to make some adjustments. It’s clear at this point that noone is going to sweep any congressional districts. I updated 5, 7, 10, 12, and 16.
11:01- Obama gets the final delegate in Erie.
10:56- Looks like I spoke too soon on saying the Obama could not break 65% in district 1. It’s going to be close, so I’m going to be taking 1 away from Clinton there and throwing it back in the pot.
10:53- With Clinton apparently winning the 4th congressional district, the question remains what Jason Altmire, the undeclared superdelegate who is the Congressman in that district, will do. He has been at a number of Obama events, but has not yet endorsed anyone.
10:50- Despite winning Pittsburgh, Allegheny County as a whole is going strongly to Clinton, so she will pick up the 4th and 18th, both 3-2 delegates.
10:47- Obama is speaking now, and he won our home district (14th)!
10:43- Obama is ahead by 24 points in Dauphin County (Harrisburg). Clinton is leading by a lot in the rest of district 17. This will split 2-2.
10:37- In Pittsburgh, it looks like Barack Obama is going to pull out a narrow victory, but it will be close.
10:31- Clinton will win Erie & the 3rd Congressional district. She probably won’t break 70% to get the final delegate.
10:24- With 92% in in Philly, Obama will be below 5%, so I’ll estimate that Clinton will get the final delegate in district 1.
10:19- Clinton will win district 9, picking up 2 delegates to Obama’s 1.
10:11- Neither Clinton nor Obama will win more than 79% in the 14th, but the race for Pittsburgh is looking really close. Chart updated.
10:07- Clinton will win district 11. Not sure yet if she will get over 70% to pick up the extra delegate or not, but I’ve updated the chart to give her 3 there.
9:56- The only remaining question in the Philadelphia districts is whether late-reporting will push Obama up to over 65%. I’m betting no, but I’ll hold out on calling the final delegate in each of those districts.
9:45- With 63% in Philadelphia reporting, Obama will win districts 1 and 2, I’ll update the chart.
9:36- I’m starting to assign some of the Philadelphia Delegates. It does not look like Obama will be breaking 80% there.
9:22- Results from Allegheny County have been remarkably slow to come in. Only 5 precincts reporting so far.
9:08- With 1/4 of the votes in from Philadelphia, Obama is only up by 10 points. That probably has more to do with the state being called than anything else. I’m not sure what precincts in Philadelphia are still out, but Obama would need to be up by much more in that County at this point to really compete.
9:06- CNN and the BBC called the state for Clinton. Maybe a bit early, but not much of a surprise. Not nearly enough votes in yet to project delegates.
9:03- Just got a text message - Pittsburgh ward 9 district 1 (home of Len Bodack Sr in Central Lawrenceville), Obama lost by only 11 votes.
8:47- What the hell, I’ll go ahead and call the State Auditor race for Jack Wagner and the State Attorney General for Morganelli. I should be safe in those uncontested races.
8:41- Obama leads 14 votes to 9 in Huntingdon County. Clinton by about 600 votes in Philadelphia. Neither of these results will hold up. I’ll wait to post more numbers until there is something a little more useful.
8:37- First precincts coming in are from Philadelphia and Luzerne Counties. Just a couple of thousand of votes in so far, but nothing of substance to report. Numbers should start coming in.
8:35 - People have been coming into the party. There’s a mix of Clinton and Obama supporters here.
8:10- Exit Polls: This race will not be a blow-out
8:00- Polls are closed. Elsewhere on the Burghosphere: with 2 votes reporting, Dish calls it, Macyapper’s polling place had as many voters by 9:20 am as they expect all day, Pittsburgh Comet will be covering the returns,
7:45- We have another 15 minutes. In the meantime, if you missed this gem from Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll at the Clinton rally, check this out:
7:36- Polls closing in half an hour. People are putting up decorations for the returns party. Planned Parenthood, the League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, and Progress Pittsburgh are hosting.
Here’s some anecdotes from the ground:
- At some precincts in Highland Park, they had beat 2004 General Election turnout by mid-morning!
- My wife had this conversation:
- 9-yr-old: Who are you voting for?
- TMP: Ivoted for Obama.
- 9-yr-old: Me too! Well, I WISH I could - First-time voters have been coming out of the woodwork in Oakland, Lawrenceville, and probably lots of other neighborhoods
- At the Obama staging area that was covering Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Bloomfield, and Friendship, all of the precincts had been canvassed by early afternoon. The first sign of Clinton canvassers I saw in Lawrenceville was at about 5pm.
Early this Morning- It’s Election Day! Tonight, starting at about 7:30pm or so, I’ll be liveblogging the Election Results from the party at Ava (Highland Ave, just south of Penn) hosted by the PA League of Young Voters Education Fund, Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, and Progress Pittsburgh. Come back for instantaneous analysis and a delegate count.
In the meantime, feel free to check some older posts: delegate math, who the delegates will be, my prediction post, and what I’ll be looking for tonight.
Estimated Delegate Count
| Where? |
Delegates to Allocate |
Obama |
Clinton |
|
| Statewide |
0 | |||
| Congressional District 1 |
Southeast (Philly) |
0 | 5 | |
| 2 |
Southeast (Philly) |
0 | 7 | 2 |
| 3 |
West (Erie) |
0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 |
West (Pittsburgh Suburbs) |
2 | ||
| 5 |
Central (Penn State) |
0 | ||
| 6 |
Southeast (Philly Suburbs) |
3 | 3 | |
| 7 |
Southeast (Philly Suburbs) |
0 | ||
| 8 |
Southeast (Philly Suburbs) |
0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 |
Central (Altoona) |
0 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 |
Northeast |
0 | ||
| 11 |
Northeast (Wilkes Barre – Scranton) |
0 | 4 | |
| 12 |
West |
0 | ||
| 13 |
Southeast (Philly Suburbs) |
3 | 4 | |
| 14 |
West (Pittsburgh) |
0 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 |
Northeast (Lehigh Valley) |
0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 |
Southeast (Lancaster) |
|||
| 17 |
Central (Harrisburg) |
|||
| 18 |
West (Pittsburgh Suburbs) |
|||
| 19 |
Central (York) |
0 | ||
| Total |
Setting Up for Results Watching Party at Ava
Some pictures are also being posted at CNN - click here for the ProgressPittsburgh ireport.
Polling Place Pictures
Here are some pictures of polling places around Pittsburgh that have been submitted this morning.
Mt. Washington: The best view of any polling place in Pittsburgh. Not only do I get to vote today, I get to look at this view.
Bloomfield:
This is 5151 liberty the old location for 8-7 it was mailed to new registrants instead of the right location at gross and liberty.
Point Breeze:
Pittsburgh 14-11 (Linden School) around 11am. No signs for candidates, no lines
Election Eve Obama Rally
Barack Obama spoke in front of a crowd of over 12,000 this evening at the Peterson Events Center on the University of Pittsburgh’s campus. The crowd was excited and on its feet for most of the night. More pictures below the jump.
Obama rally begins at Pitt
Obama rally begins at Pitt
Originally uploaded by progresspittsburgh
It is just after 10 PM. Barack and Michelle Obama, Teresa Heinz and Bob Casey have just walked on stage.
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